How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China
China strongly restricts rural-rural, urban-urban, and rural-urban migration. The result which this paper documents is a surplus of labor in agriculture. However, the paper argues that these restrictions also lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity within both rural industrial and urban areas, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers for 1990-97. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment level, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale, as it varies with industrial composition. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized - below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors. It also examines the effect of capital reallocations, where the rural sector is grossly undercapitalized.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2002|
|Publication status:||published as Au, Chun-Chung and J. Vernon Henderson. "How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration And Productivity In China," Journal of Development Economics, 2006, v80(1,Jun), 350-388.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Working papers 9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
- Wagner, Alfred, 1891.
"Marshall's Principles of Economics,"
History of Economic Thought Articles,
McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 5, pages 319-338.
- Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2003.
"Microfoundations of Urban Agglomeration Economies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2004. "Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 48, pages 2063-2117 Elsevier.
- Giles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2003. "Micro-Foundations of Urban Agglomeration Economies," NBER Working Papers 9931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Au, Chun-Chung & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2006.
"How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 350-388, August.
- Chun-Chung Au & Vernon Henderson, 2002. "How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China," NBER Working Papers 8707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 2003. "Urban evolution in the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 343-372, October.
- Putterman, Louis & Chiacu, Ana F., 1994. "Elasticities and factor weights for agricultural growth accounting: A look at the data for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-204.
- Mueser Peter R. & Graves Philip E., 1995. "Examining the Role of Economic Opportunity and Amenities in Explaining Population Redistribution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-200, March.
- Jonathan Eaton & Zvi Eckstein, 1994.
"Cities and Growth: Theory and Evidence from france and Japan,"
Boston University - Institute for Economic Development
36, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Eckstein, Zvi, 1997. "Cities and growth: Theory and evidence from France and Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 443-474, August.
- Jonathan Eaton & Zvi Eckstein, 1994. "Cities and Growth: Theory and Evidence from France and Japan," NBER Working Papers 4612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J.V. Henderson, 1972.
"The Sizes and Types of Cities,"
75, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Rappaport, Jordan, 2004.
"Why are population flows so persistent?,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 554-580, November.
- Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Yang, Dennis T. & An, Mark Yuying, 1997.
"Human Capital, Entrereneurship, and Farm Household Earnings,"
97-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yang, Dennis Tao & An, Mark Yuying, 2002. "Human capital, entrepreneurship, and farm household earnings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 65-88, June.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
- Putterman, Louis, 1993. "Continuity and Change in China's Rural Development: Collective and Reform Eras in Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195078725, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.