IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns

  • Andrea Brasili

    (Banca Intesa)

  • Paolo Epifani

    (Bocconi University CESPRI)

  • Rodolfo Helg

    (Cattaneo University LIUC)

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self- reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/it/papers/0004/0004006.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0004006.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0004006
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 33 ; figures: included
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
  2. P Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1993. "Intergration," CEP Discussion Papers dp0172, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Eicher, Theo S., 1999. "Trade, development and converging growth rates: Dynamic gains from trade reconsidered," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 179-198, June.
  4. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  6. Mountford, Andrew, 1998. "Trade, convergence and overtaking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 167-182, October.
  7. Edward E. Leamer & James Levinsohn, 1994. "International Trade Theory: The Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Proudman, J. & Redding, S., 1998. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Economics Papers 144, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Glass, Amy Jocelyn, 1997. "Product Cycles and Market Penetration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(4), pages 865-91, November.
  11. Redding, Stephen, 1999. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
  12. Horst Herberg & Murray C. Kemp, 1969. "Some Implications of Variable Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 403-415, August.
  13. Marco Bianchi, 1995. "Testing for convergence: evidence from non-parametric multimodality tests," Bank of England working papers 36, Bank of England.
  14. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Thomas Vollrath, 1991. "A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 265-280, June.
  16. Findlay, Ronald, 1970. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 27-34, Jan.-Feb..
  17. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989. "Quality Ladders And Product Cycles," Papers 39-89, Tel Aviv.
  18. James R. Markusen & James R. Melvin, 1981. "Trade, Factor Prices, and the Gains from Trade with Increasing Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 450-69, August.
  19. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
  20. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April.
  21. Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen J., 1998. "Persistence and Mobility in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Arye Hillman, 1980. "Observations on the relation between “revealed comparative advantage” and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 315-321, June.
  23. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ethier, Wilfred, 1979. "Internationally decreasing costs and world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, February.
  25. Keld Laursen, 1998. "Do Export and Technological Specialisation Patterns Co-evolve in Terms of Convergence or Divergence? Evidence From 19 OECD Countries, 1971-1991," DRUID Working Papers 98-18, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  26. André Sapir, 1992. "Regional integration in Europe," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8200, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  27. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May.
  28. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  29. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 2000. "On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns," KITeS Working Papers 115, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2000.
  30. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-68, September.
  31. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  32. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-86, November.
  33. Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-19, December.
  34. Kunimoto, Kazutaka, 1977. "Typology of Trade Intensity Indices," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 17(2), pages 15-32, February.
  35. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  36. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  37. Deardorff, A.V., 1999. "Patterns of Trade and Growth Across Cones," Working Papers 443, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0004006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.