On the dynamics of trade patterns
In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former are in fact characterised by a highly persistent trade pattern, while the latter's specialisation is highly mobile. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self-reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Matteotti 22 - Castellanza (VA) 21053|
Phone: +39 (0)331-572 1
Fax: +39 (0)331-572 320
Web page: http://www.liuc.it/default.asp
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 2000.
"On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns,"
KITeS Working Papers
115, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2000.
- Glass, Amy Jocelyn, 1997. "Product Cycles and Market Penetration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(4), pages 865-91, November.
- Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990.
"Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen, 2000.
"Evolving Patterns of International Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-96, August.
- James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving patterns of international trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 206, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Proudman, J. & Redding, S., 1998. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Economics Papers 144, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- James R. Markusen & James R. Melvin, 1981. "Trade, Factor Prices, and the Gains from Trade with Increasing Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 450-69, August.
- Leamer, E. & Levingsohn, J., 1994.
"International Trade Theory: The Evidence,"
368, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989.
"Quality Ladders And Product Cycles,"
152, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
- Findlay, Ronald, 1970. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 27-34, Jan.-Feb..
- Thomas Vollrath, 1991. "A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 265-280, June.
- repec:fth:michin:443 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
- Kunimoto, Kazutaka, 1977. "Typology of Trade Intensity Indices," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 17(2), pages 15-32, February.
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April.
- Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
- Ethier, Wilfred, 1979. "Internationally decreasing costs and world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Sapir, Andre, 1992.
"Regional Integration in Europe,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1491-506, November.
- Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1999. "Patterns of Trade and Growth Across Cones," Working Papers 443, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
- Marco Bianchi, 1995. "Testing for convergence: evidence from non-parametric multimodality tests," Bank of England working papers 36, Bank of England.
- Horst Herberg & Murray C. Kemp, 1969. "Some Implications of Variable Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 403-415, August.
- Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen J., 1998. "Persistence and Mobility in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-86, November.
- Keld Laursen, 1998. "Do Export and Technological Specialisation Patterns Co-evolve in Terms of Convergence or Divergence? Evidence From 19 OECD Countries, 1971-1991," DRUID Working Papers 98-18, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
- Eicher, Theo S., 1999. "Trade, development and converging growth rates: Dynamic gains from trade reconsidered," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 179-198, June.
- Mountford, Andrew, 1998. "Trade, convergence and overtaking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 167-182, October.
- Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
- Redding, Stephen, 1999.
"Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
- Redding, S., 1997. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Economics Papers 140, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-19, December.
- P Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1993. "Intergration," CEP Discussion Papers dp0172, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-68, September.
- Arye Hillman, 1980. "Observations on the relation between “revealed comparative advantage” and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(2), pages 315-321, June.
- Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Piero Cavaleri)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.