Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth
Traditional empirical strategies for studying convergence - more generally, the dynamics and determinants of economic growth, can be misleading if important, underlying permanent or growth components are stochastically time-varying. This paper documents the degree to which this instability characterises the data, and then offers an alternative empirical framework. This alternative, directly modelling the dynamics of the evolving cross-section distributions, applied to cross-country income data yields some interesting insights: economies across the world seem to be converging to a distribution where many remain wealthy, and many remain poor. Those economies able to make the transition from low to high income levels are primarily small and sparsely populated; middle-income ones, by contrast, are a vanishing class.
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- Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
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Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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