IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation convergence in the new EU member states

  • A M Spiru
Registered author(s):

    In this study, the degree of convergence of inflation rates of Central and East European economies to a variety of measures of European norm inflation is assessed using a range of techniques. These include unit root testing based upon panels of data and - an innovation to the pertinent literature - tests of nonlinear convergence. The results suggest that while convergence can be revealed in a number of cases, there is some sensitivity associated with the testing framework, in particular whether time series or panel methods are used. Furthermore, the inflation convergence performance of the CEE countries is conditional on the chosen inflation benchmark, the composition of the panel and the correlations among members. Moreover, by conducting a battery of linearity tests, it is found that nonlinear inflation convergence is virtually ubiquitous for the period that includes the accession of the Central and Eastern European former transition economies into the EU.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/InflationConvergence.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 590260.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:590260
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    LANCASTER LA1 4YX

    Phone: +44 (1524) 594601
    Fax: +44 (1524) 594244
    Web page: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lums
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Balkan and Mediterranean Candidates for European Union Membership: The Convergence of their Monetary Policy with that of the European Central Bank," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 456, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
    5. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    7. Strauss, Jack & Yigit, Taner, 2003. "Shortfalls of panel unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 309-313, December.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    9. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    11. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    14. Kocenda, Evzen, 1999. "Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-58, August.
    16. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How Far, How Fast?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp279, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 2002. " Series-Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-46, December.
    18. Mark Holmes, 1998. "Inflation Convergence in the ERM: Evidence for Manufacturing and Services," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16.
    19. Al Kutan, 1991. "German dominance in the European Monetary System: Evidence from money supply growth rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 285-294, October.
    20. Busetti, Fabio & Forni, Lorenzo & Harvey, Andrew & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2006. "Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 0574, European Central Bank.
    21. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    22. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2002. "Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 458, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    25. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David, 1996. "Inflation Convergence Within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 70509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. John H. Rogers & Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Erika Wada, 2001. "Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Paper Series WP01-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    27. Ben-David, Dan, 1995. "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    29. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
    30. Weber, Axel A. & Beck, Günter W., 2005. "Price stability, inflation convergence and diversity in EMU: Does one size fit all?," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    31. Maier, Philipp & Cavelaars, Paul, 2004. "Convergence of price levels: lessons from the German reunification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 467-481, September.
    32. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
    33. Rodney Thom, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A comment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 577-586, September.
    34. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1997. "Time-series based tests of the convergence hypothesis: Some positive results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 143-147, October.
    35. Siklos, Pierre L & Wohar, Mark E, 1997. "Convergence in Interest Rates and Inflation Rates across Countries and over Time," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 129-41, February.
    36. repec:syd:wpaper:144 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
    38. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
    39. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1993. "Common stochastic trends and inflation convergence in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(2), pages 207-215, June.
    40. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May.
    41. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-78, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:590260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Motta)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.