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Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries

  • Kocenda, Evzen

This paper analyzes performance of the transition economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in terms of their convergence in selected macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis uses monthly data on industrial output, money aggregate (M1), consumer prices and producer prices from 1991 to 1998. The analysis is carried out within distinctive groups of countries based on different trade and geographical arrangements, and uses a panel unit-root test as an econometric tool. In general, we conclude that the transition CEE countries were not successful in achieving a certain degree of natural economic integration among them so far. Certain levels of convergence occurred only for a limited number of countries at the advanced stage of transition process.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2285.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2285
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  1. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ben-David, D., 1995. "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," Papers 35-95, Tel Aviv.
  4. Ben-David, D., 1995. "Measuring Income Convergence an Alternative Test," Papers 41-95, Tel Aviv.
  5. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
  6. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. Maloney, William F. & Azevedo, Rodrigo R., 1995. "Trade reform, uncertainty, and export promotion: Mexico 1982-88," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 67-89, October.
  8. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  9. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  10. Lucio Sarno, 1997. "Policy convergence, the exchange rate mechanism and the misalignment of exchange rates. Some tests of purchasing power parity and generalized purchasing power parity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 591-605.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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