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The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

  • Wagner, Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Bern)

  • Hlouskova, Jaroslava

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies)

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. The growth prospects of these economies cannot be directly assessed, as the economic growth process in the transition countries is shown to not yet be described adequately by neoclassical growth theory. Thus, an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience on 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analyzed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-20.pdf
File Function: First version, 2001
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Transition Economics Series with number 20.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:20
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