IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should

  • Nauro F. Campos

    ()

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    ()

This essay surveys macroeconomic issues that marked the transition from centrally planned to market economy in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. We first establish a set of stylized facts of the transition so far, namely: (1) output fell, (2) capital shrank, (3) labor moved, (4) trade reoriented, (5) the structure changed, (6) institutions collapsed, and (7) transition costs. We then critically survey the theoretical literature on transition, discussing various explanations for the initial output fall as well as medium term issues, such as optimal speed of transition, disorganization, institutions and sectoral reallocation as a source of output dynamics. Last, we review the empirical literature to assess how well it translates the theoretical models and explains the stylized facts. The essay concludes with a succinct list of suggestions for future research.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp470.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 470.

as
in new window

Length: 75 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-470
Contact details of provider: Postal:
724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109

Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Aghion, Philippe, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," Scholarly Articles 4481322, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Daniel Berkowitz and David N. DeJong & Daniel Berkowitz and David N. DeJong, 1999. "Accounting for Growth in Post-Soviet Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 256, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Roland Dohrn & Ullrich Heilemann, 1996. "The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 411-425, October.
  5. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  6. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gérard Roland, 2000. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182033, December.
  8. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2001. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 384, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 1999. "Disorganization and Financial Collapse," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 285, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
  11. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
  12. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2000. "Resources, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Economies in Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 313, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Boeri, Tito & Flinn, Christopher J., 1997. "Returns to Mobility in the Transition to a Market Economy," Working Papers 97-41, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  14. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December.
  16. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
  17. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.
  18. Peter Doyle & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth; Eight Years of Transition," IMF Working Papers 98/100, International Monetary Fund.
  19. McMillan, John & Naughton, Barry, 1992. "How to Reform a Planned Economy: Lessons from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 130-43, Spring.
  20. Flemming, J.S. & Micklewright, John, 2000. "Income distribution, economic systems and transition," Handbook of Income Distribution, in: A.B. Atkinson & F. Bourguignon (ed.), Handbook of Income Distribution, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 843-918 Elsevier.
  21. Lawrence J. Lau & Yingyi Qian & Gerald Roland, 1997. "Reform Without Losers: An Interpretation of China's Dual-Track Approach to Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 137, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  22. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "The Soviet Economic Decline," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(3), pages 341-71, September.
  23. Mark De Broeck & Vincent Koen, 2001. "The “Soaring Eagle”: Anatomy of the Polish Take-Off in the 1990s," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 1-33, July.
  24. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1993. "Productivity of public spending, sectoral allocation choices, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1178, The World Bank.
  25. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  26. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
  27. Cheikbossian, Guillaume & Maurel, Mathilde, 1997. "The New Geography of Eastern European Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-39, February.
  29. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 135-46, February.
  30. Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard & Xu, Chenggang, 1999. "Why is China different from Eastern Europe? Perspectives from organization theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 1085-1094, April.
  31. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135.
  32. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1994. "Fiscal Constraints and the Speed of Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
  34. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 511-28, June.
  35. Harrison, Mark, 1998. "Trends in Soviet labour productivity, 1928 85: War, postwar recovery, and slowdown," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 171-200, August.
  36. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2000. "The Determinants of Trust," NBER Working Papers 7621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Guillermo A. Calvo & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1991. "Credit Markets, Credibility, and Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 139-148, Fall.
  38. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  39. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  41. Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
  42. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Abram Bergson, 1991. "The USSR before the Fall: How Poor and Why," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-44, Fall.
  44. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 229-33, May.
  45. V. Popov., 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: 15 Years Later," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
  46. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  48. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  49. Leamer, Edward & Taylor, Mark P, 1994. "The Empirics of Economic Growth in Previously Centrally Planned Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1995. "On the Ills of Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 5198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Campos, Nauro F & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Yingyi Qian & Gerard Roland, . "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint," Working Papers 97045, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  53. Ernesto Hernández-Catá, 1997. "Liberalization and the Behavior of Output During the Transition From Plan to Market," IMF Working Papers 97/53, International Monetary Fund.
  54. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  55. Peter Murrell, 1995. "The Transition According to Cambridge, Mass," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 164-178, March.
  56. Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies; The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
  57. Sergei Guriev & Barry W. Ickes, 2000. "Microeconomic Aspects of Economic Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 348, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  58. Rodrik, Dani, 2000. "Institutions For High-Quality Growth: What They Are And How To Acquire Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 2370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Shantayanan Devarajan & Vinaya Swaroop & Heng-fu Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," CEMA Working Papers 77, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  60. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  62. Gerd Schwartz & Ke-young Chu, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 94/68, International Monetary Fund.
  63. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
  65. Bankim Chadha & Fabrizio Coricelli & Kornélia Krajnyák, 1993. "Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 744-780, December.
  66. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Bergson, A., 1991. "The Ussr Before The Fall: How Poor And Why," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1540, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  69. Stepan Jurajda & Janet Mitchell, 2001. "Markets and Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0111001, EconWPA.
  70. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Output Decline in Transition; The Case of Kazakhstan," IMF Working Papers 98/45, International Monetary Fund.
  72. Wolf, H.C., 1999. "Transition Strategies: Choices and Outcomes," Princeton Studies in International Economics 85, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  73. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1995. "Unemployment, Investment and Sectoral Reallocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
  75. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Liberalization, democracy and economic performance during transition," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  76. Boeri, Tito, 2000. "Structural Change, Welfare Systems, and Labour Reallocation: Lessons from the Transition of Formerly Planned Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293651, December.
  77. Stanley Fischer & Alan Gelb, 1991. "The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 91-105, Fall.
  78. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
  79. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
  80. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
  81. Torsten M Sloek & Sanja Kalra, 1999. "Inflation and Growth in Transition; Are the Asian Economies Different?," IMF Working Papers 99/118, International Monetary Fund.
  82. J. Kornai, 2000. "Ten Years After "The Road to a Free Economy": The Author's Self-evaluation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
  83. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  84. Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathon Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1997. "Grime and Punishment: Employment, Wages and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 103, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  85. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  86. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  87. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  88. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank.
  89. Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  90. Richard E. Ericson, 1991. "The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 11-27, Fall.
  91. Svejnar, Jan, 1999. "Labor markets in the transitional Central and East European economies," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 42, pages 2809-2857 Elsevier.
  92. Ernesto Hernández-Catá, 1997. "Liberalization and the Behavior of Output during the Transition from Plan to Market," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 405-429, December.
  93. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank.
  94. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766, December.
  95. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.