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The new geography of eastern european trade


  • Mathilde Maurel

    () (ROSES - Réformes et Ouverture des Systèmes Economiques post-Socialistes - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Guillaume Cheikbossian

    (ROSES - Réformes et Ouverture des Systèmes Economiques post-Socialistes - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)


This paper is meant to answer the question whether the CMEA countries trade flows have been able to catch up with their trade potential. The gravity equations estimated over a panel of 14 years show that there is a room for an increase in trade, which could compensate for the huge regional trade losses. But, if one takes into account the higher than average transportation costs in East Europe, this potential increase may only he reached through the reduction of these transportation costs and through further liberalisation of regional trade flows. How costly has been the disintegration process? The computation of gross trade destruction (GTD) versus trade creation (TC) minus external trade diversion (ETD) in the framework of the Viner model reflects the decreasing costs of the CMEA break-up: a dramatic trade reorientation has taken place, and it is welfare improving.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Guillaume Cheikbossian, 1998. "The new geography of eastern european trade," Post-Print halshs-00468826, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00468826
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1998.tb01712.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    2. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2005. "What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, May.
    3. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Integration, Disintegration and Trade in Europe: Evolution of Trade Relations During the 1990s," Working Papers 42, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Fidrmuc, J. & Horváth, J., 1998. "Stability of Monetary Unions : Lessons from the Break-Up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 1998-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Angela Cheptea, 2013. "Border Effects and European Integration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-305, June.
    7. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "Extending the EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade and Real Wage Effects," Discussion Paper Series 2003_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2003.
    9. Ion Lucian Ceapraz, 2008. "The Concepts Of Specialisation And Spatial Concentration And The Process Of Economic Integration: Theoretical Relevance And Statistical Measures. The Case Of Romania’S Regions," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 68-93, June.
    10. Crozet, Matthieu & Koenig Soubeyran, Pamina, 2004. "EU enlargement and the internal geography of countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 265-279, June.
    11. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Boede & Michaela Fuchs & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35, October.
    12. Simeon Djankov & Caroline Freund, 2002. "New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(3), pages 493-508, September.
    13. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Mathilde Maurel, 2002. "Impacts économiques et sociaux de l'élargissement pour l'Union européenne et la France," Working Papers 2002-03, CEPII research center.
    15. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    16. Laurence Boone & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Pegging the CEECs Exchange Rates to the Euro," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 77-89.
    17. Olivier Lamotte, 2003. "Disintegration and trade in South-eastern Europe," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    18. Jarko Fidrmuc & Peter Huber & Jan Jakub Michalek, "undated". "Poland's Accession to the European Union: Demand for Protection of Selected Sensitive Products," WIFO Working Papers 117, WIFO.
    19. van Brabant, Jozef M., 2001. "Transforming trade and payments in transition economies -- the regional dimension," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-126, January.

    More about this item


    commerce pays de l'Est;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration


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