IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should

  • Nauro F. Campos
  • Abrizio Coricelli

This essay surveys macroeconomic issues that marked the transition from planned to market economy in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. We first establish stylized facts of the transition so far. We then critically survey the theoretical literature on transition, discussing explanations for the initial output fall, and mediumterm issues such as optimal speed of transition, disorganization, institutions and sectoral reallocation as source of output dynamics. We review the empirical literature to assess how well it translates the theoretical models and explains the stylized facts. We conclude with suggestions for future research.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/002205102760273797
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Literature.

Volume (Year): 40 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 793-836

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:40:y:2002:i:3:p:793-836
Note: DOI: 10.1257/002205102760273797
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/journal
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Aghion, P. & Blanchard, O.J., 1993. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," Working papers 93-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  3. Stepan Jurajda & Janet Mitchell, 2001. "Markets and Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0111001, EconWPA.
  4. Dani Rodrik, 2000. "Institutions for High-Quality Growth: What They are and How to Acquire Them," NBER Working Papers 7540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, December.
  6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  7. V. Popov., 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: 15 Years Later," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
  8. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  10. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "The Soviet Economic Decline," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(3), pages 341-71, September.
  11. Lawrence J. Lau & Yingyi Qian & Gerard Roland, . "Reform without Losers: An Interpretation of China's Dual-Track Approach to Transition," Working Papers 99010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  12. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  13. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
  14. Bergson, A., 1991. "The Ussr Before The Fall: How Poor And Why," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1540, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies; The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Maurel, Mathilde & Cheikbossian, Guillaume, 1998. "The New Geography of Eastern European Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 45-71.
  17. J. Kornai, 2000. "Ten Years After "The Road to a Free Economy": The Author's Self-evaluation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
  18. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. "Resources, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Economies in Transition," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 545-79.
  19. Tito Boeri & Christopher Flinn, 1997. "Returns to Mobility in the transition to a Market Economy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 108, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  20. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1994. "Fiscal Constraints and the Speed of Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2001. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 384, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  24. Gerd Schwartz & Ke-young Chu, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 94/68, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Campos, Nauro F & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
  28. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1998. "Productivity of Public Spending, Sectoral Allocation Choices, and Economic Growth," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 291-303, January.
  29. Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N., 2002. "Accounting for growth in post-Soviet Russia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 221-239, March.
  30. Blanchard, O & Kremer, M, 1996. "Disorganization," Working papers 96-30, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  31. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  32. Boeri, Tito, 2000. "Structural Change, Welfare Systems, and Labour Reallocation: Lessons from the Transition of Formerly Planned Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293651, December.
  33. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  34. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Leamer, Edward & Taylor, Mark P, 1994. "The Empirics of Economic Growth in Previously Centrally Planned Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Torsten M Sloek & Sanja Kalra, 1999. "Inflation and Growth in Transition; Are the Asian Economies Different?," IMF Working Papers 99/118, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1995. "On the Ills of Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 5198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  40. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
  41. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 229-33, May.
  42. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
  44. Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard & Xu, Chenggang, 1999. "Why is China different from Eastern Europe? Perspectives from organization theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 1085-1094, April.
  45. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 1999. "Disorganization and Financial Collapse," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 285, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  46. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766, December.
  47. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," NBER Working Papers 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  49. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135.
  50. Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank.
  52. Guillermo A. Calvo & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1991. "Credit Markets, Credibility, and Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 139-148, Fall.
  53. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
  54. Ernesto Hernández-Catá, 1997. "Liberalization and the Behavior of Output During the Transition From Plan to Market," IMF Working Papers 97/53, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Wolf, H.C., 1999. "Transition Strategies: Choices and Outcomes," Princeton Studies in International Economics 85, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  56. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1995. "Unemployment, Investment and Sectoral Reallocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 511-28, June.
  59. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
  60. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
  61. Stanley Fischer & Alan Gelb, 1991. "The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 91-105, Fall.
  62. Peter Doyle & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth; Eight Years of Transition," IMF Working Papers 98/100, International Monetary Fund.
  63. Yingyi Qian & Gerard Roland, . "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint," Working Papers 97045, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  64. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The "Soaring Eagle"; Anatomy of the Polish Take-Off in the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 00/6, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
  66. Bernard, A.B. & Jones, C.I., 1993. "Productivity Across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," Working papers 93-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  67. Sergei Guriev & Barry W. Ickes, 2000. "Microeconomic Aspects of Economic Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 348, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  68. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December.
  69. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  70. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  71. John Micklewright & John Flemming, 1999. "Income Distribution, Economic Systems and Transition," Papers iopeps99/69, Innocenti Occasional Papers, Economic Policy Series.
  72. Gerard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1997. "Transition and the Output Fall," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 37, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  73. Kornelia Krajnyak & Bankim Chadha & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy," IMF Working Papers 93/16, International Monetary Fund.
  74. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  75. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  76. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  77. Ratna Sahay & Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market; Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/52, International Monetary Fund.
  78. McMillan, John & Naughton, Barry, 1992. "How to Reform a Planned Economy: Lessons from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 130-43, Spring.
  79. Richard E. Ericson, 1991. "The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 11-27, Fall.
  80. Ernesto Hernández-Catá, 1997. "Liberalization and the Behavior of Output during the Transition from Plan to Market," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 405-429, December.
  81. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
  82. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Output Decline in Transition; The Case of Kazakhstan," IMF Working Papers 98/45, International Monetary Fund.
  83. Svejnar, Jan, 1999. "Labor markets in the transitional Central and East European economies," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 42, pages 2809-2857 Elsevier.
  84. Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1992. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe; The Role of Credit," IMF Working Papers 92/64, International Monetary Fund.
  85. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank.
  86. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2000. "The Determinants of Trust," NBER Working Papers 7621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Roland Dohrn & Ullrich Heilemann, 1996. "The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 411-425, October.
  88. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  89. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
  90. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Liberalization, democracy and economic performance during transition," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  91. Peter Murrell, 1995. "The Transition According to Cambridge, Mass," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 164-178, March.
  92. Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathon Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1997. "Grime and Punishment: Employment, Wages and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 103, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  93. Abram Bergson, 1991. "The USSR before the Fall: How Poor and Why," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-44, Fall.
  94. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
  95. Harrison, Mark, 1998. "Trends in Soviet labour productivity, 1928 85: War, postwar recovery, and slowdown," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 171-200, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:40:y:2002:i:3:p:793-836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)

or (Michael P. Albert)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.