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Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience

  • S. Fisher
  • R. Sahay
  • C. A. Vegh

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.

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Article provided by N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki" in its journal Voprosy Economiki.

Volume (Year): 5 (1997)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:1997-05-0186
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.vopreco.ru/eng/year.html

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  1. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  8. Mario I. Blejer & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1995. "The Making Of Economic Reform In Eastern Europe," Books, Edward Elgar, number 72, December.
  9. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1995. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1517, The World Bank.
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  12. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Inflation and stabilization in transition economies: An analytical interpretation of the evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 75-108.
  13. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
  14. Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  15. Alan Gelb & Gary Jefferson & Inderjit Singh, 1993. "Can communist economies transform incrementally? The experience of China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(4), pages 401-435, December.
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  17. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  18. Cohen, Daniel, 1995. "The Transition in Russia: Successes (Privatization, Low Unemployment...) and Failures (Mafias, Liquidity Constraints...). A Theoretical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Sachs, J.D. & Woo, W.T., 1994. "Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Papers 94-01, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  20. Yavlinsky Grigory & Braguinsky Serguey, 1994. "The Inefficiency of Laissez-Faire in Russia: Hysteresis Effects and the Need for Policy-Led Transformation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 88-116, August.
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