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Disorganization and Financial Collapse

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  • Dalia Marin
  • Monika Schnitzer

Abstract

Recently, Blanchard and Kremer (BK) argued that disorganization has led to the output decline in the former Soviet Union. In this paper we introduce liquidity and credit constraints into the BK model and show how these problems can alleviate the hold-up problem. We argue further that barter creates a hostage which allows to deal with disorganization when credit enforcement is prohibitively costly. The theory helps to explain how the three observed phenomena of output decline, inter-firms arrears and barter in transition economies are connected. Based on a survey of 165 barter deals in the Ukraine in 1997, we reproduce the BK result with firm level and deal specific data and we show that in addition to the input shortage the financial shortage and barter have each an important effect on output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 2000. "Disorganization and Financial Collapse," CESifo Working Paper Series 339, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_339
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 2003. "Creating Creditworthiness through Reciprocal Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 159-174, February.
    2. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 2002. "The Economic Institution Of International Barter," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 293-316, April.
    3. Dalia Marin & Daniel Kaufmann & Bogdan Gorochowskij, 2000. "Barter in Transition Economies: Competing Explanations Confront Ukranian Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 287, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Eric S. Maskin, 1996. "A Walrasian Theory of Money and Barter," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 955-1005.
    5. Konings, Jozef & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 1998. "Disorganization in the Transition Process: Firm-Level Evidence from Ukraine," CEPR Discussion Papers 1928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Johnson, Simon & McMillan, John & Woodruff, Christopher, 1999. "Contract Enforcement in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Perotti, E. C., 1998. "Inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1703-1725, November.
    8. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Ickes, B.W. & Ryterman, R., 1993. "Roadblock to Economic Reform: Inter-Enterprise Debt and the Transition to Markets," Papers 2-93-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    10. Dalia Marin, 2002. "Trust versus illusion: What is driving demonetization in the former Soviet Union?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 173-200, March.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    12. Canice Prendergast & Lars Stole, 2001. "Barter, Liquidity and Market Segmentation," CESifo Working Paper Series 586, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    14. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906.
    15. Williamson, Oliver E, 1983. "Credible Commitments: Using Hostages to Support Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 519-540, September.
    16. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Eric S. Maskin, 1996. "A Walrasian Theory of Money," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1753, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Rostowski, J., 1993. "The inter-enterprise debt explosion in the former Soviet Union: causes, consequences, cures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20968, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Marin, Dalia & Schnitzer, Monika, 1995. "Tying Trade Flows: A Theory of Countertrade with Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1047-1064, December.
    19. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 2002. "Contracts in Trade and Transition: The Resurgence of Barter," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133997, January.
    20. J Rostowski, 1993. "The Inter-Enterprise Debt Explosion in the Former Soviet Union: Causes, Consequences, Cures," CEP Discussion Papers dp0142, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lubom??r L??zal, 2002. "Determinants of Financial Distress: What Drives Bankruptcy in a Transition Economy? The Czech Republic Case," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 451, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Dalia Marin & Haizhou Huang & Chenggang Xu, 2004. "Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Russia, Ukraine, and Other FSU Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/105, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    4. Barbara, CRESTI, 2003. "U.S. Domestic Barter : an Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003005, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Eteri Kvintradze, 2010. "Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery; Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition," IMF Working Papers 10/89, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Financial Constraints And Innovation: Why Poor Countries Don'T Catch Up," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1115-1152, October.
    7. Sophie Brana & Mathilde Maurel, 1999. "Barter in Russia: Liquidity Shortage versus Lack of Restructuring," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 271, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. Wladimir Andreff, 2004. "Would a Second Transition Stage Prolong the Initial Period of Post-socialist Economic Transformation into Market Capitalism?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(1), pages 7-31, June.
    9. Alan A. Bevan & Saul Estrin & Paul G. Hare & Jon Stern, 2001. "Extending the economics of disorganization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 105-114, March.
    10. Huang, Haizhou & Marin, Dalia & Xu, Chenggang, 2004. "Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery, and Banking Development in Russia, and other FSU Countries," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 79, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    11. Guriev, Sergei & Makarov, Igor & Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "Debt Overhang and Barter in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 635-656, December.
    12. Pelinescu, Elena, 2013. "The Mechanisms of Arrears in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 223-239, June.
    13. Richard B. Goud Jr., 2002. "Inter-Firm Non-Monetary Transactions in Russia: A Literature Review," Development and Comp Systems 0207001, EconWPA.
    14. Marin, Dalia & Huang, Haizhou & Xu, Chenggang, 2002. "Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Former Soviet Union Economies," Discussion Papers in Economics 27, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Ellingsen, Tore, 1998. "Payments in Kind," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 244, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2000.
    16. Mario Gara, 2001. "The Emergence of Non-monetary Means of Payment in the Russian Economy," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 5-39.
    17. Falkowski, Jan, 2014. "The economic effects of radical reorganisation of the agro-food supply chain: some evidence from Poland," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182713, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Commander, Simon & Dolinskaya, Irina & Mumssen, Christian, 2002. "Determinants of barter in Russia: an empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 275-307, April.
    19. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Grygorenko, Yegor, 2008. "Are oligarchs productive? Theory and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 17-42, March.
    20. Perotti, Enrico, 2002. "Lessons from the Russian Meltdown: The Economics of Soft Legal Constraints," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 359-399, Winter.
    21. Wendy Carlin & Steven Fries & Mark Schaffer & Paul Seabright, 2000. "Barter and Non-Monetary Transactions in Transition Economies: Evidence from a Cross-Country Survey," CERT Discussion Papers 0004, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition; financial crisis; output fall; credit constraint; barter; hold-up;

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • P3 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions

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