On the Speed of Transition Central Europe
Transition in Central Europe is four years old. State firms which dominated the economy are struggling with market forces. A new private sector quickly emerged and has taken hold. Unemployment, which did not exist, is high and still increasing. Will this process of transition accelerate, or slow down? Will unemployment keep increasing? Can things go wrong and how? Our paper represents a first pass at answering those questions. The basic structure of the model we develop is standard, that of the transition from a low to a high productivity sector. But we pay attention to two aspects which strike us as important. The first is the interactions between unemployment and the decisions of both state and private firms. The second are the idiosyncracies which come from the central planning legacy, from the structure of control within state firms to the lack of many market institutions, which limits private sector growth. We start with a description of transition in Poland so far. We then develop a model and use it to think about the determinants of the speed of transition and the level of unemployment. Finally, we return to the role of policy and the future in Poland, as well as the causes of cross-Central European country variations.
|Date of creation:||May 1994|
|Publication status:||published as Fischer, Stanley and Julio Rotemberg (eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1994.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1992.
"Output Collapse in Eastern Europe; The Role of Credit,"
IMF Working Papers
92/64, International Monetary Fund.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Industry evolution and transition: the role of information capital," Staff Report 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Qimiao Fan & Mark E. Schaffer, 1994. "Government financial transfers and enterprise adjustments in Russia, with comparisons to Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(2), pages 151-188, 06.
- De Crombrugghe, A. & Lipton, D., 1993.
"The Government Budget and the Economic Transformation of Poland,"
111, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
- Alain de Crombrugghe & David Lipton, 1994. "The Government Budget and the Economic Transformation of Poland," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 2: Restructuring, pages 111-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brian Pinto & Marek Belka & Stefan Krajewski, 1993. "Transforming State Enterprises in Poland: Evidence on Adjustment by Manufacturing Firms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 213-270.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1994.
"On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction,"
NBER Working Papers
4768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 805-852.
- J Rostowski, 1993. "The Implications of Rapid Private Sector Growth in Poland," CEP Discussion Papers dp0159, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4736. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.