IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdi/wpaper/63.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes: application d'un modèle de durée

Author

Listed:
  • Ariane TICHIT

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

After the political collapse of the former communist area, the Central and Eastern European countries, as well as the Former Soviet Union Republics have all experienced a reduction in GDP. At present, some of them have achieved macroeconomic stabilisation and economic revival, while others fail to curb the recession. This paper sheds light on the main factors responsible for this heterogeneity among the post-communist transition countries, thanks to an econometric analysis of a duration model. The estimated variable is the number of years spent in negative growth by each country, since the beginning of transition. The main results are that even if initial conditions played a significant role, the stabilisation, liberalisation and restructuration policies and the speed of their enforcement, had been the essential factors to economic revival.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane TICHIT, 1997. "Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes: application d'un modèle de durée," Working Papers 199719, CERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/1997/1997.19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zukowski, Ryszard, 1993. "Stabilization and recession in a transitional economy: The case of Poland," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1163-1178, July.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Rana, Pradumna B., 1995. "Reform strategies in transitional economies: Lessons from Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1157-1169, July.
    4. Gomulka, Stanislaw & Johnson, Paul, 1991. "The causes of recession following stabilization," Economic History Working Papers 21107, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    5. Bankim Chadha & Fabrizio Coricelli & Kornélia Krajnyák, 1993. "Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 744-780, December.
    6. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    7. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 1994. "The Path of Output From Plan to Market," IMF Working Papers 1994/071, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Drazen, Allan & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "The Benefit of Crises for Economic Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 598-607, June.
    9. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    10. Casella, Alessandra & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilisation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 605-619, May.
    11. S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    12. Carletto, Calogero & de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1996. "Knowledge, Toxicity, And External Shocks: The Determinants Of Adoption And Abandonment Of Non-Traditional Export Crops By Smallholders In Guatemala," CUDARE Working Papers 25088, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
    14. Peter Murrell, 1996. "How Far Has the Transition Progressed?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 25-44, Spring.
    15. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-133, May.
    16. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    17. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906.
    18. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: A Comparison with Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 1995/008, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Stanislaw Gomulka & Paul Johnson, 1991. "The Causes of Recession following Stabilization," CEP Discussion Papers dp0033, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1990. "Policies to Move from Stabilization to Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    22. Dabrowski, Marek, 1996. "Different strategies of transition to a market economy : how do they work in practice?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1579, The World Bank.
    23. Commander, Simon, 1992. "Inflation and the Transition to a Market Economy: An Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 3-12, January.
    24. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
    25. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1991. "The Causes of Recession Following Stabilization," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 71-90, July.
    26. Mr. Daniel Daianu, 1994. "The Changing Mix of Disequilibria During Transition: A Romanian Background," IMF Working Papers 1994/073, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 1996/031, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 1994. "Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry," IMF Working Papers 1994/080, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 229-233, May.
    30. Kornai, J., 1993. "Transformational Recession; A General Phenomenon Examined Through the Example of Hangary's Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1648, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    31. Mr. Ke-young Chu & Mr. Gerd Schwartz, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 1994/068, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Portes, Richard, 1994. "Transformation Traps," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1178-1189, September.
    33. Eduardo Borensztein & Dimitri G. Demekas & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank.
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    4. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 2093, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2005. "Reforms and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: Complementarity, Sequencing and Speed," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 177-202, December.
    8. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2014. "Conflict inflation and delayed stabilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 171-184.
    9. Thorsten Beck & Luc Laeven, 2006. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 157-186, June.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    11. Bose, Pinaki & Kemme, David M., 2002. "Liberalization, entry and product quality in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 353-366, December.
    12. Marek Dabrowski & Artur Radziwill, 2007. "Regional vs. Global Public Goods: The Case of Post-Communist Transition," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0336, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. John Tomer, 2002. "Intangible Factors in the Eastern European Transition: A Socio-Economic Analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 421-444.
    14. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
    16. Lawrence P. King, 2003. "Explaining Postcommunist Economic Performance," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-559, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Hayo, Bernd, 2004. "Public support for creating a market economy in Eastern Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 720-744, December.
    18. Jose Saboin, 2018. "The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 2018/266, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    20. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Mazenod (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.