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Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes : application d'un modèle de durée

  • Ariane Tichit

[eng] Economic Recovery in the Post-Communist Countries: Application of a Time Span Model . by Ariane Tichit . The fall of the communist system sent all the Central and East European and former USSR countries into deep recession. Although some of these economies have now recovered substantial growth, others are still not able to put a break on their downward slide. This paper determines the main factors behind these divergences by econometrically estimating how long the recessions have lasted. The findings show that, although the initial conditions at the time of the change of regime played a role, the elements essential to economic recovery were stabilisation, restructuring and free-market policies as well as the speed with which these policies were applied. [fre] Reprise économique dans les pays potf -communistes : application d'un modèle de durée . par Ariane Tichit . Suite à l'effondrement du système communiste, tous les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale et d'ex-URSS ont connu une forte récession économique. Actuellement, certains ont retrouvé une croissance substantielle alors que d' autres ne parviennent toujours pas à juguler leur effondrement. Cet article détermine les principaux facteurs à l'origine de ces divergences par une estimation économétrique des durées de crise. Les résultats obtenus montrent que si les conditions initiales au moment du changement de régime ont joué un rôle, les politiques de stabilisation, restructuration et libéralisation ainsi que la vitesse à laquelle elles ont été réalisées, ont été des éléments essentiels à la reprise.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 136 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 73-92

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_136_5_5939
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1998.5939
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