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Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions

This paper employs smooth transition models to investigate the GDP series of ten CEECs. Allowing for a transition in both trend and intercept we examine the response of GDP to reforms in CEECs. Our results indicate that in only a small of number of countries is there evidence to suggest that the impact of the reforms on long-run growth has been positive. In most cases there has been no significant impact of the transition on the trend growth rate. There also appears to be little difference in terms of the depth of recession, speed of adjustment and the impact of reforms on GDP growth depending upon whether a country adopted a gradual or a fast approach to reforms.

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File URL: http://www.wiiw.ac.at/modelling-gdp-in-ceecs-using-smooth-transitions-dlp-535.pdf
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Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Working Papers with number 36.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Publication status: Published as wiiw Working Paper
Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:36
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  7. Portes, Richard, 1991. "The Path of Reform in Central and Eastern Europe: An Introduction," CEPR Discussion Papers 559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  9. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
  10. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  11. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  13. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
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  15. Greenaway, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Smooth Transitions and GDP Growth in the European Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 145-65, March.
  16. Roxana Radulescu & David Barlow, 2002. "The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(3), pages 719-745, November.
  17. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990-1997; A Stylized Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/141, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
  19. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1998. "On privatization methods in Eastern Europe and their implications," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(1), pages 87-99, 05.
  20. Paul Brenton & Daniel Gros & Guy Vanadille, 1997. "Output decline and recovery in the transiton economies: causes and social consequences," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 113-130, 05.
  21. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  22. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  23. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  25. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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