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Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions

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This paper employs smooth transition models to investigate the GDP series of ten CEECs. Allowing for a transition in both trend and intercept we examine the response of GDP to reforms in CEECs. Our results indicate that in only a small of number of countries is there evidence to suggest that the impact of the reforms on long-run growth has been positive. In most cases there has been no significant impact of the transition on the trend growth rate. There also appears to be little difference in terms of the depth of recession, speed of adjustment and the impact of reforms on GDP growth depending upon whether a country adopted a gradual or a fast approach to reforms.

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  • Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:36
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgescu, George, 2006. "Comerţul exterior scufundă barca economiei româneşti [Foreign Trade is Sinking the Romanian Economy Boat]," MPRA Paper 24012, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEECs; GDP growth; smooth transitions; time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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