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Output decline and recovery in the transiton economies: causes and social consequences1

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  • Paul Brenton
  • Daniel Gros
  • Guy Vanadille

Abstract

This paper suggests that output in the transition economies of eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union is related to, firstly, macroeconomic stabilization, and secondly, the speed of transition. The statistical analysis suggests that those countries which have been most successful in reducing inflation have experienced a lower level of output decline and have been first to achieve recovery in real output. There is also strong evidence that the economies which have been boldest in adopting reforms have been most successful in limiting the fall in output and promoting growth. No support is found for the assertion that the faster the speed of transition the greater the adverse impact on basic social indicators, such as mortality rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Brenton & Daniel Gros & Guy Vanadille, 1997. "Output decline and recovery in the transiton economies: causes and social consequences1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 113-130, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:5:y:1997:i:1:p:113-130
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0351.1997.tb00006.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 5039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1996. "Reforms in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in Light of the East Asian Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2016-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Synthetic ‘Real Socialism’: A Counterfactual Analysis of Political and Economic Liberalizations," Working Papers 11/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    4. Cungu, Azeta & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2003. "The Impact Of Aid On Economic Growth In Transition Economies: An Empirical Study," PRG Working Papers 31890, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    5. Suhrcke, Marc, 2000. "Are Reforms From a Centrally Planned to a Market System Bad for Health?," Discussion Paper Series 26142, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    6. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
    7. John Tomer, 2002. "Intangible Factors in the Eastern European Transition: A Socio-Economic Analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 421-444.
    8. Bose, Pinaki & Kemme, David M., 2002. "Liberalization, entry and product quality in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 353-366, December.

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