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Working-Age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya

  • Yamano, Takashi
  • Jayne, Thomas S.

The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa raises great concern about potential intergenerational effects on children. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. The paper distinguishes between effects on boys’ and girls’ education to understand potential gender differences resulting from adult mortality. We also estimate how adult mortality affects child schooling before as well as after the death occurs. The paper also estimates the importance of households’ initial asset levels in influencing the relationship between adult mortality and child school attendance. We find that all of these distinctions are important when estimating the magnitude of the effects of adult mortality on child school attendance. The probability that girls in initially poor households will remain in school prior to the death of a working age adult in the household drops from roughly 88% to 55%. Boys in relatively poor households are less likely than girls to be in school after an adult death. By contrast, we find no clear effects on girls’ or boys’ education among relatively non-poor households, either before or after the timing of adult mortality in the household. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality in our data and lagged HIV-prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. The evidence indicates that rising AIDS-related adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55159
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Paper provided by Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics in its series Food Security Collaborative Working Papers with number 55159.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:midcwp:55159
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  1. Lundberg, Mattias & Over, Mead & Mujinja, Phare, 2000. "Sources of financial assistance for households suffering an adult death in Kagera, Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2508, The World Bank.
  2. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  3. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  5. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2002. "Measuring The Impacts Of Prime-Age Adult Death On Rural Households In Kenya," Staff Papers 11632, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  6. Beegle, Kathleen, 2005. "Labor Effects of Adult Mortality in Tanzanian Households," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 655-83, April.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  8. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  9. Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2001. "Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 556-592.
  10. Ainsworth, Martha & Filmer, Deon, 2002. "Poverty, AIDS, and children's schooling - a targeting dilemma," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2885, The World Bank.
  11. Paul Glewwe, 2002. "Schools and Skills in Developing Countries: Education Policies and Socioeconomic Outcomes," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 436-482, June.
  12. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & John A. Maluccio & Susan Watkins, 2001. "Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(4), pages 79-124, November.
  13. Nyambedha, Erick Otieno & Wandibba, Simiyu & Aagaard-Hansen, Jens, 2001. "Policy implications of the inadequate support systems for orphans in Western Kenya," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 83-96, October.
  14. Evans, David & Miguel, Edward A., 2005. "Orphans and Schooling in Africa: A Longitudinal Analysis," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt14w3s2fh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  15. Strauss, John & Thomas, Duncan, 1995. "Human resources: Empirical modeling of household and family decisions," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1883-2023 Elsevier.
  16. Strauss, J. & Thomas, D., 1995. "Empirical Modeling of Household and Family Decisions," Papers 95-12, RAND - Reprint Series.
  17. Ainsworth, Martha & Dayton, Julia, 2003. "The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Health of Older Persons in Northwestern Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 131-148, January.
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