HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa: a Bayesian Estimation
In this paper we assess the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on monetary poverty using a panel data-set from South Africa and modeling the consequences of the illness on both earnings and transfers. Two major econometric problems are likely to bias the estimation: endogeneity of the HIV/AIDS dummy variable, and autoselection of the individuals participating to the labour market or to transfers networks. We solve both of them by proposing an original framework where we include correlated fixed-effects both in the level and the participation equations, which are estimated simultaneously with original Bayesian methods. The procedure is tested and very well-behaved. Splitting the sample into urban and rural population, we show that HIV/AIDS has a significant but moderate impact on poverty for urban population, because transfers partly compensate the fall of earnings entailed by the decrease in labour market participation. On the contrary, HIV/AIDS has an important impact on poverty for the rural population because it causes a fall of transfers. Surprisingly the effect on earnings is not significant . We argue that those results can be explained by the existence of an efficient public safety net in urban settings, while in contrast private transfers are subject to moral hazard and imperfect commitment that characterize risk-sharing in rural settings.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (819) 821-7233
Fax: (819) 821-6930
Web page: http://www.gredi.org/home/documents-de-travail
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James J, 1979.
"Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
- Ethan Ligon & Jonathan P. Thomas & Tim Worrall, 2000.
"Mutual Insurance, Individual Savings and Limited Commitment,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 216-246, April.
- Ethan Ligon & Jonathan P. Thomas & Tim Worrall, 1998. "Mutual Insurance, Individual Savings and Limited Commitment," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 98/14, Department of Economics, Keele University.
- Maitra, Pushkar & Ray, Ranjan, 2003. "The effect of transfers on household expenditure patterns and poverty in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-49, June.
- Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
- Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007.
"Risk Sharing and Network Formation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
- Gubert, Flore & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10840, Paris Dauphine University.
- Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-067, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Coate, Stephen & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Reciprocity without commitment : Characterization and performance of informal insurance arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:07-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luc Savard)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.