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Adult mortality and consumption growth in the age of HIV/AIDS

  • Beegle, Kathleen
  • De Weerdt, Joachim
  • Dercon, Stefan

The authors use a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, they examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics. The effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. The authors find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4082.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4082
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  6. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
  7. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  8. Lundberg, Mattias & Over, Mead & Mujinja, Phare, 2000. "Sources of financial assistance for households suffering an adult death in Kagera, Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2508, The World Bank.
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  10. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2003. "Measuring the Effects of Prime-age Adult Mortality in Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 54642, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
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  14. Ainsworth, M. & Koda, G. & Lwihula, G. & Mujinja, P. & Over, M. & Semali, I., 1992. "Measuring the Impact of Fatal Adult Illness in Sub-Saharan Africa; An Annotated Household Questionnaire.," Papers 90, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  15. Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2004. "Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach," Working Papers 2004008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
  16. Firman Witoelar, 2005. "Inter-household Allocations within Extended Family: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Working Papers 912, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  17. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  18. Kinsey, Bill & Burger, Kees & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1998. "Coping with drought in Zimbabwe: Survey evidence on responses of rural households to risk," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 89-110, January.
  19. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
  20. Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-64, May.
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