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Adult mortality and consumption growth in the age of HIV/AIDS

  • Beegle, Kathleen
  • De Weerdt, Joachim
  • Dercon, Stefan

The authors use a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, they examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics. The effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. The authors find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4082.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4082
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  1. Antony Chapoto & T. S. Jayne, 2008. "Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 327-374.
  2. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2000. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 103, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  3. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T. S., 2004. "Measuring the Impacts of Working-Age Adult Mortality on Small-Scale Farm Households in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-119, January.
  4. Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-64, May.
  5. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & John A. Maluccio & Susan Watkins, 2001. "Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(4), pages 79-124, November.
  6. Grimm, Michael, 2006. "Mortality and survivors' consumption," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 9, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  7. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  8. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  9. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
  10. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  11. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
  12. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  13. M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000. "Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December.
  14. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2003. "Measuring the Effects of Prime-age Adult Mortality in Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 54642, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  15. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
  16. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
  17. Firman Witoelar, 2005. "Inter-household Allocations within Extended Family: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Working Papers 912, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  18. Kinsey, Bill & Burger, Kees & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1998. "Coping with drought in Zimbabwe: Survey evidence on responses of rural households to risk," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 89-110, January.
  19. repec:oup:qjecon:v:120:y:2005:i:2:p:423-466 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Ainsworth, M. & Koda, G. & Lwihula, G. & Mujinja, P. & Over, M. & Semali, I., 1992. "Measuring the Impact of Fatal Adult Illness in Sub-Saharan Africa; An Annotated Household Questionnaire.," Papers 90, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
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