IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v80y2006i1p228-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Author

Listed:
  • McDonald, Scott
  • Roberts, Jennifer

Abstract

It is estimated that by 2001 20 million people had died from AIDS, which is now the world´s fourth biggest cause of death. While the highest prevalence and death rates and number of infected persons are reported for sub-Saharan Africa, where life expectancies at birth are declining rapidly and infant mortality rates are increasing, there is evidence that the epidemic is accelerating in Asia and Eastern Europe. While the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are the major causes for concern, the econometric results reported in this paper indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have been substantial; especially in Africa where the average marginal negative impact on income per capita of a one percent increase in HIV prevalence rate is 0.59 percent. Even in countries where the HIV prevalence rates are lower the marginal impacts are non trivial.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:80:y:2006:i:1:p:228-250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3878(05)00097-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amar A Hamoudi & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1999. "The Changing Global Distribution of Malaria: A Review," CID Working Papers 02A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Alok Bhargava & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence J. Lau & Christopher J. L. Murray, 2006. "Modeling the effects of health on economic growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 20, pages 269-286, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2001/080, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
    5. Roberto Cellini, 1997. "Growth empirics: evidence from a panel of annual data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 347-351.
    6. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    7. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2002. "Growth and multiple forms of human capital in an augmented Solow model: a panel data investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 271-276, January.
    8. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    9. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    10. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    11. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    12. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-392, July-Aug..
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Amar Hamoudi & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1999. "The Changing Global Distribution of Malaria: A Review," CID Working Papers 2, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    16. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    17. Sen, Amartya, 1998. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    19. Selma J. Mushkin, 1962. "Health as an Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Investment in Human Beings, pages 129-157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 1996. "Misspecification and cross-country growth regressions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 413-416.
    21. Sudhir Anand & Martin Ravallion, 1993. "Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 133-150, Winter.
    22. Geoff P Garnett & Nicholas C Grassly & Simon Gregson, 2001. "AIDS: the makings of a development disaster?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 391-409.
    23. Wheeler, David, 1980. "Basic needs fulfillment and economic growth : A simultaneous model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-451, December.
    24. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(2), pages 173-189, May.
    25. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
    26. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    27. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    28. Hicks, Norman L., 1979. "Growth vs basic needs: Is there a trade-off?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(11-12), pages 985-994.
    29. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1988. "A New Set Of International Comparisons Of Real Product And Price Levels Estimates For 130 Countries, 1950–1985," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(1), pages 1-25, March.
    30. Selma J. Mushkin, 1962. "Health as an Investment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(5), pages 129-129.
    31. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    32. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
    2. Jean-Louis ARCAND & Béatrice D'HOMBRES, 2002. "Explaining the Negative Coefficient Associated with Human Capital in Augmented Solow Growth Regressions," Working Papers 200227, CERDI.
    3. Hartwig, Jochen, 2012. "Testing the growth effects of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 11-24.
    4. Enrico Lovász & Bernhard Schipp, 2009. "The Impact Of Hiv/Aids On Economic Growth In Sub‐Saharan Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 245-256, June.
    5. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena & Wilson, Mark, 2004. "Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 296-320, May.
    6. Jochen Hartwig, 2008. "Has Health Capital Formation Cured 'Baumol's Disease'? - Panel Granger Causality Evidence for OECD Countries," KOF Working papers 08-206, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Mine Yilmazer & Serkan inar, 2015. "Human Capabilities and Economic Growth: A Comparative Human Capability Index," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 843-853.
    8. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2002. "Growth and multiple forms of human capital in an augmented Solow model: a panel data investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 271-276, January.
    9. Sumarto, Sudarno & De Silva, Indunil, 2014. "Being Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Dynamics of Indonesian Subnational Growth and Poverty," MPRA Paper 57824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Indunil De Silva & Sudarno Sumarto, 2015. "Dynamics Of Growth, Poverty And Human Capital: Evidence From Indonesian Sub-National Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 1-33, June.
    11. Stephen Knowles & P. Dorian Owen, 1997. "Education and Health in an Effective‐Labour Empirical Growth Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(223), pages 314-328, December.
    12. Alok Kumar & Brianne Kober, 2014. "Education and Cross-Country Productivity Differences," Department Discussion Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    13. Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2006. "The impact of poor health on total factor productivity," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 918-938.
    14. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    15. Hartwig, Jochen, 2010. "Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? - Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 314-325, March.
    16. Roman Matousek & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2021. "The asymmetric impact of human capital on economic growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1309-1334, March.
    17. Isreal, Akingba Idowu Opeoluwa & Kaliappan, Shivee & Hamzah, Hanny Zurina, 2019. "Impact of Health Capital on Total Factor Productivity in Singapore," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 83-98.
    18. LI, Hongyi & HUANG, Liang, 2009. "Health, education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 374-387, September.
    19. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    20. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:80:y:2006:i:1:p:228-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.