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Testing the Growth Effects of Structural Change

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  • Jochen Kurt Hartwig

Abstract

Against the backdrop of Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth', a recent strand of literature has presented models that manage to reconcile structural change with Kaldor's 'stylized fact' of the relative constancy of per-capita GDP growth. Another strand of literature goes beyond this, arguing that the expenditure shifts toward Baumol's 'stagnant' sector stimulate rather than dampen long-term economic growth because of the human capital-accumulating nature of major 'stagnant' services (like health care and education). This paper tests the relationship between structural change and economic growth empirically by means of a Granger-causality analysis of a panel of 18 OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen Kurt Hartwig, 2010. "Testing the Growth Effects of Structural Change," KOF Working papers 10-264, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:10-264
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010705340
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwig, Jochen, 2015. "Structural change, aggregate demand and employment dynamics in the OECD, 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 36-45.
    2. Pedrosa Silva Duarte Maria Adelaide & Nunes Simões Marta Cristina, 2014. "Tertiarization and Human Capital: Do They Matter for Growth? Insights From Portugal," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(1), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Aradhna Aggarwal & Nagesh Kumar, 2012. "Structural Change, Industrialization and Poverty Reduction: The Case of India," Development Papers 1206, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    4. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Endogenous phase switch in Baumol's service paradox model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 25-35.
    5. Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Assessing the Impact of the Welfare State on Economic Growth: A Survey of Recent Developments," GEMF Working Papers 2014-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    6. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 77232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marta C. N. Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Human Capital and Growth in a Services Economy: the Case of Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2013-21, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    8. repec:ris:ecoint:0811 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cristian Dragos & Simona Laura Dragos, 2012. "Econometric Estimations of the Services and Financial Sector Impact on Economic Growth Variations in Times of Crisis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(Special N), pages 621-634, November.
    10. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 76493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. HORI Takeo & UCHINO Taisuke, 2013. "Competition, Productivity Growth, and Structural Change," Discussion papers 13041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2014. "Is Growth Declining in the Service Economy?," Discussion papers e-14-007, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    13. Aimei Hong & Changchun Cheng, 2016. "The study on affecting factors of regional marine industrial structure upgrading," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 7(2), pages 213-219, June.
    14. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & King, Roswitha M., 2015. "Endogenous supply side constraints to export-led growth and aggregate growth implications in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 96-109.
    15. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "Income Inequality and Growth: New Insights from Italy," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(4), pages 419-442.
    16. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2011. "Sectoral Structure and Economic Growth," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.
    17. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Queirós, Anabela S.S., 2016. "Economic growth, human capital and structural change: A dynamic panel data analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1636-1648.
    18. Anabela Queirós & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2014. "Economic growth, human capital and structural change: an empirical analysis," FEP Working Papers 549, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Structural change; Human capital; Panel Grangercausality tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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