IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries

Listed author(s):
  • Andreas Dietrich

    ()

In economic development, aggregate economic growth is accompanied by structural change among the three main sectors of an economy. Nevertheless, the question whether economic growth causes structural change, or changes in the economic structure cause aggregate growth is still unanswered. To shed more light on this question, this article examines a Granger causality test in a panel environment to determine the relationship of economic growth and structural change, measured either in terms of employment shares or real value added shares. Estimation and analysis of the annual data of seven OECD countries, covering the period from 1960–2004, show that although the causality appears to be heterogeneous among these countries, some general conclusions can be drawn. Aggregate economic growth decelerates structural change in the very short run but accelerates it with some lag in time. The aggregate effect depends on whether structural change is measured in terms of employment or in terms of real value added. Conversely, structural change supports aggregate economic growth, irrespective of which measure of structural change chosen. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-011-0510-z
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 915-944

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:915-944
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0510-z
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/journal/181/PS2

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
  2. Andreas Dietrich & Jens J. Krüger, 2008. "Long-Run Sectoral Development - Time Series Evidence for the German Economy," Jena Economic Research Papers 2008-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  3. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., "undated". "Modeling dynamics in time-series-cross-section political economy data," Working Papers 1304, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  4. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Kongsamut, P. & Rebelo, S. & Xie, D., 1997. "Beyong Balanced Growth," RCER Working Papers 438, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Bonatti, Luigi & Felice, Giulia, 2008. "Endogenous growth and changing sectoral composition in advanced economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-131, June.
  7. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
  8. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
  9. Silva, Ester G. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2008. "Surveying structural change: Seminal contributions and a bibliometric account," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 273-300, December.
  10. Sul, Donggyu, 2009. "Panel unit root tests under cross section dependence with recursive mean adjustment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 123-126, October.
  11. Joon Y. Park, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1587, Econometric Society.
  12. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependencies: Comparison and Implications for Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 111-145, April.
  13. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," NBER Working Papers 3099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  15. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
  16. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2006. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 88, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  17. Juergen Meckl, 2000. "Structural Change and Generalized Balanced Growth," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0233, Econometric Society.
  18. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Jörg Breitung & Samarjit Das, 2005. "Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 59(4), pages 414-433.
  20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  21. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
  22. R Blundell & Steven Bond, "undated". "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  23. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y. & Song, Kevin, 2006. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 703-739, August.
  24. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  25. Nair-Reichert, Usha & Weinhold, Diana, 2001. " Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-171, May.
  26. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
  27. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
  28. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  29. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2004. "On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 04-30, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  31. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  32. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
  33. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  34. Nordhaus William D, 2008. "Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, February.
  35. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-2.
  36. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  37. Baumol, William J. & Batey Blackman, Sue Anne & Wolff, Edward N., 1984. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," Working Papers 84-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  38. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
  39. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "A Panel Data Approach for Income-Health Causality," Working Papers FNU-47, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
  40. Ciaran Driver & Chit-Wei Saw, 1996. "Performance of structural change indices: analysis using real and simulated data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 187-188.
  41. Schiavo-Campo, Salvatore, 1978. "The Simple Measurement of Structural Change: A Note," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 54(146), pages 261-263, August.
  42. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
  43. Diana Weinhold, 2004. "A Dynamic “Fixed Effects” Model for Heterogeneous Panel Data," Econometrics 0410003, EconWPA.
  44. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6159 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
  46. Breitung, J rg & Das, Samarjit, 2008. "Testing For Unit Roots In Panels With A Factor Structure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 88-108, February.
  47. Moore, John H, 1978. "A Measure of Structural Change in Output," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 24(1), pages 105-118, March.
  48. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  49. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  50. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  51. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:915-944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.