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Longevity And Technological Change

Author

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  • Gehringer, Agnieszka
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

We analyze the impact of increasing longevity on technological progress within an overlapping generations research and development (R&D)-based growth framework and test the model's implication on Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data from 1960 to 2011. The central hypothesis is that—by raising the incentives of households to invest in physical capital and in R&D—decreasing mortality positively affects technological progress and productivity growth. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction. This implies that the demographic changes we observed in industrialized economies over the last decades were not detrimental to economic prosperity, at least as far as technological progress and productivity growth are concerned.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:04:p:1471-1503_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Tabata, Ken, 2022. "Demographic structure, knowledge diffusion, and endogenous productivity growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    3. Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi, 2019. "Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 591-620, April.
    4. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168215, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Population growth and automation density: theory and cross-country evidence," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 315, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Tscheuschner, Paul, 2021. "Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2021, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    8. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    9. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    10. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    12. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    13. Kufenko, Vadim & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    14. Irmen, Andreas & Litina, Anastasia, 2022. "Population Aging And Inventive Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1127-1161, July.
    15. Peralta, Catarina & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2025. "Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    17. Kufenko, Vadmin & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "You can't always get what you want? A Monte Carlo analysis of the bias and the efficiency of dynamic panel data estimators," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 07/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    18. Shuyu Li & Qiang Wang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "How aging impacts environmental sustainability—insights from the effects of social consumption and labor supply," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    21. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    22. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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