IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jopoec/v32y2019i2d10.1007_s00148-018-0691-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth

Author

Listed:
  • Koichi Futagami

    (Osaka University)

  • Kunihiko Konishi

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

This study constructs an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, mortality, and R&D activities. We demonstrate that the model explains the observed fertility dynamics of developed countries. When the level of per capita wage income is either low or high, an increase in such income raises the fertility rate. When the level of per capita wage income is in the middle, an increase in such income decreases the fertility rate. The model also predicts the observed relationship between population growth and innovative activity. At first, both the rates of population growth and technological progress increase; that is, there is a positive relationship. Thereafter, the rate of population growth decreases but the rate of technological progress increases, showing a negative relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi, 2019. "Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 591-620, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:32:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-018-0691-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-018-0691-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00148-018-0691-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00148-018-0691-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akiko Maruyama & Kazuhiro Yamamoto, 2010. "Variety expansion and fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 57-71, January.
    2. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    3. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    4. David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2013. "The Child is Father Of the Man: Implications for the Demographic Transition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 236-261, March.
    5. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    6. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ken Tabata, 2016. "Demographic change, human capital accumulation and R&D-based growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 707-737, May.
    7. Holger Strulik, 2004. "Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(3), pages 433-453, August.
    8. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    9. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    10. Alvarez-Pelaez, Maria J. & Groth, Christian, 2005. "Too little or too much R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 437-456, February.
    11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    12. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2017. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 667-681, October.
    13. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    14. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    15. Creina Day, 2016. "Fertility and economic growth: the role of workforce skill composition and child care prices," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 546-565.
    16. Alessandro Cigno & Mizuki Komura & Annalisa Luporini, 2017. "Self-enforcing family rules, marriage and the (non)neutrality of public intervention," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 805-834, July.
    17. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
    18. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    19. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
    20. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    21. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    22. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
    23. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    24. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    25. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    26. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    27. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    28. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kohei Okada, 2020. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 225-248, August.
    2. Evangelos Dioikitopoulos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2023. "Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1545-1571, July.
    3. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model," MPRA Paper 112491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aso, Hiroki, 2021. "A note on the fertility-income relationship and childcare outside home," MPRA Paper 108543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2023. "Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 397-429, January.
    6. Kiyoka Akimoto, 2021. "Corruption, mortality rates, and development: policies for escaping from the poverty trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," Working Papers hal-04577278, HAL.
    8. Kiyoka Akimoto, 2019. "Corruption, mortality rates, and development:Policies for escaping from the poverty trap," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 18-10-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Aisa, Rosa & Cabeza, Josefina & Martin, Jorge, 2023. "Automation and aging: The impact on older workers in the workforce," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    10. Kohei Okada, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 19-18, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Makoto Hirono, 2024. "Population aging, human capital accumulation, and coordination of policies," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-85, September.
    12. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model," MPRA Paper 112489, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model," MPRA Paper 112489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Endogenous childcare costs in R&D based model," MPRA Paper 112491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tscheuschner, Paul, 2021. "Endogenous life expectancy and R&D-based economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2021, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    6. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
    7. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    9. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    10. Kohei Okada, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 19-18, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Kohei Okada, 2020. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 225-248, August.
    13. Strulik, Holger & Werner, Katharina, 2014. "Elite education, mass education, and the transition to modern growth," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 205, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    15. Carillo, Mario F., 2024. "Human capital composition and long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    17. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    18. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    19. Maik T. Schneider & Ralph Winkler, 2021. "Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetimes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(4), pages 1339-1384, October.
    20. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "Desire And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(7), pages 2717-2747, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Mortality; R&D; Economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:32:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-018-0691-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.