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Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    (Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA)

  • Michael Kuhn

    (Economic Frontiers Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Klaus Prettner

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to (a) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, (b) assess its potential economic consequences, (c) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, (d) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and (e) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:16:y:2024:p:159-184
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Briselli & Libertad González Luna, 2025. "Are men’s attitudes holding back fertility and women’s careers? Evidence from Europe," Economics Working Papers 1916, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Sen Coskun & Husnu Dalgic & Yasemin Ozdemir, 2025. "Navigating Motherhood: Endogenous Penalties and Career Choice," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_722, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Giulia Briselli & Libertad González, 2025. "Are Men's Attitudes Holding Back Fertility and Women's Careers? Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 1506, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Elisa Brini & Raffaele Guetto & Daniele Vignoli, 2025. "A research note on the increasing income prerequisites of parenthood. Country-specific or universal in Western Europe?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2025_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    5. Minniti, Antonio & Prettner, Klaus & Venturini, Francesco, 2025. "AI innovation and the labor share in European regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Bwalya Bupe Bwalya & Clifford Odimegwu & Makala Lukuni & Chabila Christopher Mapoma, 2025. "Unravelling the interplay between economic empowerment, gender equality, and desire for additional children among married women in sub-Saharan Africa: a confirmatory factor analysis approach," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    8. Ryoji Ohdoi, 2025. "International asymmetries in population aging and their consequences for the technology gap and global growth," Discussion Paper Series 302, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    9. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Mitrou, Francis, 2025. "Fertility responses to tropical cyclones: Causal evidence and mechanisms," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Bosede Odunola Adejugbe & Mufti Nadimul Quamar Ahmed, 2025. "Fertility intentions in the USA: unraveling gender and age dynamics through a cross-sectional lens," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 1-28, June.
    11. Feng, Hao & Liang, Jie & Yan, Zhen, 2025. "Meteorological disasters and labor allocation in rural China: A gendered perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Lukas Mahler & Michéle Tertilt & Minchul Yum, 2025. "Policy Concerns in an Era of Low Fertility: The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_705, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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