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The Aging Society: Is Growth Reverting to Pre-Industrial Levels in the 21st Century?

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  • Jakob B. Madsen

Abstract

The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21st century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.

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  • Jakob B. Madsen, 2024. "The Aging Society: Is Growth Reverting to Pre-Industrial Levels in the 21st Century?," CAMA Working Papers 2024-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-61
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    1. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; productivity growth; education; innovations; endogenous labor market participation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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