IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jhu/papers/602.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Carroll
  • Jiri Slacalek
  • Martin Sommer

Abstract

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 602, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:602
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ.jhu.edu/wp-content/uploads/pdf/papers/wp602_carroll.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    2. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jesse Bricker & Brian K. Bucks & Arthur B. Kennickell & Traci L. Mach & Kevin B. Moore, 2011. "Surveying the aftermath of the storm: changes in family finances from 2007 to 2009," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    6. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    7. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    8. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    9. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, September.
    10. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Karen Dynan, 2012. "Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 299-362.
    14. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Karen Dynan, 2012. "Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 299-362.
    16. Alan, S. & Crossley, T. & Low, H., 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Bewley, Truman, 1977. "The permanent income hypothesis: A theoretical formulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 252-292, December.
    18. Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sørensen, 2007. "U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses, and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2763-2801, December.
    19. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    20. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
    21. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    22. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
    24. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
    25. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
    26. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
    27. Paul Krugman & Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "Debt, Deleveraging and the Liquidity Trap," 2011 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:houspd:v:27:y:2017:i:5:p:712-733 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christopher D. Carroll, 2014. "Representing Consumption and Saving without a Representative Consumer," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress, pages 115-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:oup:restud:v:85:y:2018:i:1:p:119-156. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. André Kallåk Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' Before the Great Recession?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5347, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2018. "Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ Views of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 119-156.
    7. Fabrizio Perri & Jonathan Heathcote, 2011. "Wealth and Volatility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1065, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "What drives the US personal saving rate? The role of wealth, credit and uncertainty," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 16, pages 10-12.
    9. Daniel Garrote & Jimena Llopis & Javier Vallés, 2013. "Los canales del desapalancamiento del sector privado: una comparación internacional," Occasional Papers 1302, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    10. Sule Alan & Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low, 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1212, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    11. Luca Fornaro, 2012. "International debt deleveraging," Economics Working Papers 1401, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2016.
    12. Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis," Working Papers 1522, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    13. Kyle Herkenhoff & Gordon Phillips & Ethan Cohen-Cole, 2017. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings, and Entrepreneurship," Working Papers 2017-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    14. Kyle Herkenhoff & Gordon Phillips & Ethan Cohen-Cole, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," NBER Working Papers 22846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:11:p:2585-2608 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ángel Estrada & Daniel Garrote & Eva Valdeolivas & Javier Vallés, 2015. "Household Debt and Uncertainty: Private Consumption after the Great Recession," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 71-109, january-j.
    17. Merike Kukk, 2014. "Distinguishing the Components of Household Financial Wealth: the Impact of Liabilities on Assets in Euro Area Countries," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0100418, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    18. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2014. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment," 2014 Meeting Papers 448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. William Gatt, "undated". "The determinants of household saving behaviour in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    20. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2016. "Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 20-35, January.
    22. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2012. "Cyclical precautionary saving and monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 16, pages 7-9.
    23. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    24. Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Macroeconomic factors in corporate and household saving. Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Dec 2015.
    25. Daniel H. Cooper & Karen E. Dynan, 2013. "Wealth shocks and macroeconomic dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (None). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dejhuus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.