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The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence

Author

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  • Kaplan, Greg
  • Mitman, Kurt
  • Violante, Giovanni L.

Abstract

We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obtain three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit constraints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2017. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12215, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
    2. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    3. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1427 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Foote, Christopher L. & Loewenstein, Lara & Willen, Paul S., 2016. "Cross-sectional patterns of mortgage debt during the housing boom: evidence and implications," Working Papers 16-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Eric A. Posner & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "A Loan Modification Approach to the Housing Crisis," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 575-607.
    6. Bulent Guler, 2015. "Innovations in Information Technology and the Mortgage Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 456-483, July.
    7. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    8. Loutskina, Elena, 2011. "The role of securitization in bank liquidity and funding management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 663-684, June.
    9. Natalya Delcoure & Norm G. Miller, 2002. "International Residential Real Estate Brokerage Fees and Implications for the US Brokerage Industry," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 12-39.
    10. Aaron Hedlund, 2014. "The Cyclical Dynamics of Illiquid Housing, Debt, and Foreclosures," Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    11. Daniel Greenwald, 2016. "The Mortgage Credit Channel of Macroeconomic Transmission," 2016 Meeting Papers 1551, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    13. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States: 1967-2006," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 15-51, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2017. "Home Values and Firm Behaviour," Discussion Papers 1724, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Foote, Christopher L. & Willen, Paul S., 2017. "Mortgage-default research and the recent foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 17-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. McQuade, 2018. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 24446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," NBER Working Papers 24322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Credit Conditions; Expectations; foreclosures; great recession; home ownership; House Prices; leverage; Long-Term Mortgages; Rental Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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