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Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains

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  • Klaus Adam
  • Albert Marcet
  • Johannes Beutel

Abstract

Investors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:8:p:2352-2408
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes & Marcet, Albert & Merkel, Sebastian, 2015. "Can a financial transaction tax prevent stock price booms?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 90-109.
    2. repec:eee:jeborg:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:315-343 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1108, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," Working Paper Series rwp15-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    7. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    8. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2018. "Equity return predictability, time varying volatility and learning about the permanence of shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 315-343.
    9. Colin Caines, 2016. "Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles In Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom," International Finance Discussion Papers 1181, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. repec:eee:eecrev:v:106:y:2018:i:c:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Emir Zildžović, 2015. "The Sustainability Of Serbia`S External Position: The Impact Of Fiscal Adjustment And External Shocks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(204), pages 31-60, January –.
    12. Klaus Adam & Michael Woodford, 2018. "Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7071, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Baghestanian, Sascha & Massenot, Baptiste, 2016. "Credit cycles: Experimental evidence," SAFE Working Paper Series 104 [rev.], Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    14. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:147-170 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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