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X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

  • Nicholas Barberis
  • Robin Greenwood
  • Lawrence Jin
  • Andrei Shleifer

Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs. We find that the model captures many features of actual prices and returns; importantly, however, it is also consistent with the survey evidence on investor expectations.

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Paper provided by Harvard University OpenScholar in its series Working Paper with number 86521.

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