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Investor Experiences and Financial Market Dynamics

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  • Ulrike Malmendier
  • Demian Pouzo
  • Victoria Vanasco

Abstract

How do macro-financial shocks affect investor behavior and market dynamics? Recent evidence suggests long-lasting effects of personally experienced outcomes on investor beliefs and investment but also significant differences across older and younger generations. We formalize experience-based learning in an OLG model, where different cross-cohort experiences generate persistent heterogeneity in beliefs, portfolio choices, and trade. The model allows us to characterize a novel link between investor demographics and the dependence of prices on past dividends, while also generating known features of asset prices, such as excess volatility and return predictability. The model produces new implications for the cross-section of asset holdings, trade volume, and investors' heterogeneous responses to recent financial crises, which we show to be in line with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrike Malmendier & Demian Pouzo & Victoria Vanasco, 2018. "Investor Experiences and Financial Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 24697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24697
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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