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Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?

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  • Bacchetta, Philippe
  • van Wincoop, Eric
  • Mertens, Elmar

Abstract

There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. In this paper we examine whether this predictability is related to expectational errors. To consider this issue, we use data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market, the foreign exchange market, and the bond and money markets in various countries. We find that the predictability of expectational errors coincides with the predictability of excess returns: when a variable predicts expectational errors in a given market, it typically predicts the excess return as well. Understanding expectational errors appears crucial for explaining excess return predictability.

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  • Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric & Mertens, Elmar, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5770
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excess returns; Expectations survey; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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