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Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies

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  • Shinji Takagi

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations is briefly surveyed. The literature in general supports the presence of a nonzero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, whereas short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run "normal" values, long-run expectations tend to move back toward them. If this behavior of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for an official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:38:y:1991:i:1:p:156-183
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