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Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data

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Abstract

Tests of rational expectations in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the underlying asset pricing model. This paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange forecasts to examine directly expectations formation in four foreign currency markets. Generally, results do not support the simple rational expectations hypothesis.

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  • Kathryn Dominguez, 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data," International Finance Discussion Papers 281, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:281
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