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L'efficience et la formation des anticipations sur le marché des changes

  • Rahim Loufir
  • Catherine Bruno
  • Pascal Jacquinot

[eng] Efficiency and Formation of Expectations in Exchange Markets The aim of this article is twofold : first to analyse the efficiency properties of the French franc and the American dollar exchange markets : second, to determine the nature of exchange rate expectations in these markets for monthly and quarterly horizons over the period 1980- 1990. The efficiency test — based on the joint hypothesis of no risk and no bias — takes into account the possible non stationarity of the time series and the possible interaction between currencies — the French franc, American dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, Deutsche mark and the Italian lira. We conclude that only the franc- dollar and the mark- franc exchange markets are efficient over this period. The rejection of efficiency in other markets leads us to examine three processes of expectations formation : adaptive, extrapolative and regressive. Actually, the heterogeneity of expectations according to the horizon is a possible explanation of inefficiency. More generally, the determination of the nature of these expectations allows us to understand the evolution of the expected exchange rate. In continuous time modelling where we notably avoid an arbitrary expression of unobservable variables such asthe exchange target, we conclude that exchange rate expectations of the dollar, the pound, and the yen vis-à-vis the franc, and the mark vis-à-vis the dollar are regressive for both horizons — monthly and quarterly. Since the nature of these expectations is homogenous, it cannot be an explanation of the inefficiency of the corresponding exchange markets. [fre] L'objet de cet article est d'abord d'analyser les propriétés d'efficience des marchés des changes du franc et du dollar puis de déterminer la nature des anticipations de change sur ces marchés pour des horizons prévisionnels d'un et trois mois sur la période 1980-1990. La mise en œuvre du test d'efficience — fondé sur l'hypothèse jointe d'absence de prime de risque et d'erreurs systématiques d'anticipations — prend explicitement en compte le caractère non stationnaire des données et l'interaction possible entre les devises — le franc, le dollar, la livre, le yen, le mark et la lire. A ce stade de l'analyse, on doit conclure que seuls les marchés des changes du franc vis-à-vis du dollar ainsi que du mark vis-à-vis du franc sont efficients sur la période. Le rejet de l'efficience pour les autres marchés des changes conduit à s'interroger sur la formation des anticipations de change dont la nature est adaptative, régressive ou extrapolative. En effet, l'hétérogénéité des anticipations selon l'horizon prévisionnel constitue une explication possible de l 'inefficience. Plus généralement, la détermination de la nature des anticipations de change permet de mieux connaître l'évolution des taux de change au comptant futurs. A partir d'une modélisation en temps continu présentant notamment l'avantage d'éviter de donner une expression arbitraire à des variables inobservables comme la cible de change, on est amené à conclure que les anticipations de change pour le dollar, la livre, le yen vis-à-vis du franc et pour le mark vis-à-vis du dollar sont régressives pour les deux horizons prévisionnels considérés. Par conséquent, la nature de ces anticipations étant homogène, elle ne peut pas constituer une explication de l'inefficience des marchés des changes correspondants.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Observations et diagnostics économiques : revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 42 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 249-282

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_42_1_1294
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1992.1294
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