Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets
We use a no-arbitrage, cost-of-carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of cointegration between spot and forward (futures) prices depends on the time-series properties of the cost-of-carry. We argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets, explaining many of the empirical results in the literature. We also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error, the basis, and the forward premium are serially correlated, and to develop econometric tests of the “unbiasedness hypothesis” (sometimes called the “simple efficiency hypothesis”) in various financial markets. The unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance literature that many tests for it have been developed. We examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness. We find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature.
Volume (Year): 30 (1995)
Issue (Month): 01 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_JFQEmail:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:30:y:1995:i:01:p:23-42_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.