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Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments

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  • Wang, Peijie
  • Jones, Trefor

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  • Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:223-239
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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
    4. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, T S, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the "News": Some Evidence Using U.K. Survey Data," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 56(1), pages 69-76, March.
    5. Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
    6. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-341, August.
    7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1983. "Tests of Efficiency and the Impact of 'News' in Three Foreign Exchange Markets: The Experience of the 1920's," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 123-144, November.
    8. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "The Term Structure of Forward Foreign Exchange Premia: The Inter-war Experience," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(1), pages 54-65, March.
    10. Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
    12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    13. Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-343, July.
    14. Peel, D A & Pope, P F, 1995. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Term Structure of Forward Exchange Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(1), pages 69-81, March.
    15. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    16. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kan, Denis & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, B., 2007. "Examination of the efficient market hypothesis--the case of post-crisis Asia Pacific countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 294-313, April.
    2. Imad A. Moosa, 2015. "The random walk versus unbiased efficiency: can we separate the wheat from the chaff?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 251-279, October.
    3. Anil Kumar Sharma & Anujit Mitra, 2007. "What Drives Forward Premia in Indian Forex Market?," Working Papers id:795, eSocialSciences.
    4. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2006. "Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Imad A. Moosa, 2004. "What Is Wrong with Market-Based Forecasting of Exchange Rates?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 107-121, August.
    6. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2008. "Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-89, January.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    8. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. von Hagen, Jürgen & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & Selten, Reinhard & Pope, Robin, 2006. "Prominent Numbers and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination: Field and Laboratory Evidence," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 29/2006, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    10. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 26/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    11. Aroskar, Raj & Sarkar, Salil K. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2004. "European foreign exchange market efficiency: Evidence based on crisis and noncrisis periods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 333-347.
    12. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2003. "The impossibility of meaningful efficient market parameters in testing for the spot-forward relationship in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 81-87, October.
    13. Susan Thorp, 2004. "That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 148, Econometric Society.

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