IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bonedp/292006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prominent Numbers and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination: Field and Laboratory Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Kube, Sebastian
  • Kaiser, Johannes
  • Selten, Reinhard
  • Pope, Robin

Abstract

In the decision-making process, there is a stage when choosers evaluate alternatives. Evaluation is complex especially when it involves the future exchange rate. In the complexity of predicting the future exchange rate, choosers may use prominent numbers and ratios. We furnish field and experimental evidence of major effects on exchange rate determination from prominent numbers and ratios that constitute nominal equalities and historical benchmarks. Theorizing and estimation of exchange rates can be enhanced via SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory that allows prominent numbers and prominent ratios to be taken into account consistently in constructing decision models.

Suggested Citation

  • von Hagen, Jürgen & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & Selten, Reinhard & Pope, Robin, 2006. "Prominent Numbers and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination: Field and Laboratory Evidence," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 29/2006, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:292006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22973/1/bgse29_2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Judith Covey & Richard D. Smith, 2006. "How common is the ‘prominence effect’? Additional evidence to Whynes et al," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 205-210, February.
    3. Rapp, Tammy A. & Sharma, Subhash C., 1999. "Exchange rate market efficiency: across and within countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 423-439, September.
    4. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1819, October.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    6. Chong Ju Choi & Carla C. J. M. Millar & Caroline Y. L. Wong, 2005. "Knowledge and Exchange," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Knowledge Entanglements, chapter 0, pages 65-76, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    8. David M. Kreps & Evan L. Porteus, 2013. "Temporal von Neumann—Morgenstern and Induced Preferences," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 11, pages 181-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Paul Davidson, 1993. "The Elephant and the Butterfly," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 309-322, March.
    10. Claudia Keser & Bodo Vogt, 2000. "Why Do Experimental Subjects Choose an Equilibrium which Is Neither Payoff Nor Risk Dominant?," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-34, CIRANO.
    11. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
    12. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2001. "Does Money Illusion Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1239-1262, December.
    13. Birnbaum, Michael H & Navarrete, Juan B, 1998. "Testing Descriptive Utility Theories: Violations of Stochastic Dominance and Cumulative Independence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 49-78, October.
    14. Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
    15. Keser, Claudia & Vogt, Bodo, 2000. "Why do experimental subjects choose an equilibrium which is neither risk nor payoff dominant," Papers 00-40, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    16. Mekvabishvili, Rati, 2006. "Money Illusion and Coordination," MPRA Paper 93688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
    18. Davidson, Paul, 1988. "A Technical Definition of Uncertainty and the Long-run Non-neutrality of Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 329-337, September.
    19. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    21. James L. Butkiewicz, 2005. "Governor Eugene Meyer and the Great Contraction," Working Papers 05-01, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    22. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
    23. Keser, Claudia & Vogt, Bodo, 0000. "Why do experimental subjects choose an equilibrium which is neither risk nor payoff dominant," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    24. Robin E. Pope, 2001. "Evidence of Deliberate Violations of Dominance Due to Secondary Satisfaction - Attraction to Chance," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 18, pages 47-76.
    25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    26. Levich, Richard M, 1989. "Is the Foreign Exchange Market Efficient?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 40-60, Autumn.
    27. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    28. Paul Davidson, 1984. "Reviving Keynes’s Revolution," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 561-575, July.
    29. Weber, Martin & Borcherding, Katrin, 1993. "Behavioral influences on weight judgments in multiattribute decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-12, May.
    30. Pope, Robin E., 1991. "The delusion of certainty in Savage's sure-thing principle," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 209-241, June.
    31. David K. Whynes & Zoë Philips & Emma Frew, 2005. "Think of a number… any number?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(11), pages 1191-1195, November.
    32. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    33. Brett Inder & Terry O'Brien, 2003. "The Endowment Effect and the Role of Uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 289-301, July.
    34. Pope, Robin, 2004. "Biases from omitted risk effects in standard gamble utilities," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-735, July.
    35. Conlisk, John, 1993. "The Utility of Gambling," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 255-275, June.
    36. Walsh, Vivian, 1996. "Rationality, Allocation, and Reproduction," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287728.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. von Schwerin, Axel, 2015. "Effective Burden of Business Taxation and Tax Eff ort of Local Governments," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112955, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian, 2009. "Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 17/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian, 2009. "Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 17/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    2. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 26/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    3. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen von Hagen, 2006. "Experimental Evidence on the Benefits of Eliminating Exchange Rate Uncertainties and Why Expected Utility Theory causes Economists to Miss Them," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 010, University of Siena.
    4. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Prominent Numbers, Indices and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination and Financial Crashes: in Economists’ Models, in the Field and in the Laboratory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    5. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kaiser, Johannes & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "The damage from clean floats: From an anti-inflationary monetary policy," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 19/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    6. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2009. "Risk in a Simple Temporal Framework for Expected Utility Theory and for SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 27/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    7. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2009. "Risk and Expected Utility Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 5/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    8. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar‐Thy‐Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.
    9. Pope, Robin, 2007. "Beggar Thy Neighbour: Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misunderstandings of Mundell (1961)," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 1/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 125-173.
    11. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    12. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    13. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    14. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
    15. Samuel MENG, 2018. "How to build an economy free of recession and stagnation: results from a multi-commodity macro model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 69-104, Summer.
    16. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    17. Pope, Robin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2009. "Expected utility versus the changes in knowledge ahead," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 892-901, December.
    18. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    19. Scharfenaker, Ellis, 2020. "Implications of quantal response statistical equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Josh Stillwagon & Peter Sullivan, 2020. "Markov switching in exchange rate models: will more regimes help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 413-436, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominalism; money illusion; unpredictability; experiment; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory; prominent numbers; prominent ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:292006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gsbonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.