Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961 ) and the Remedy
Economists invoke Mundell (1961 ) in arguing for the general policy of a flexible exchange rate regime as a means of restoring equilibria after shocks. But there is a discrepancy between the intent of the general policy and attempts at its implementation as identified by specific changes in exchange rates. When we assemble the set of specific changes called for by distinct economists operating as advocates for individual countries, these are uniformly in the form of beggar-thy-neighbour advice - i.e. travesties of objectively identifying disequilibria and a menace to international cooperation and peace. This paper traces the unintended travesties to problems of complexity and uncertainty, problems that implicitly are assumed absent in Mundell (1961 ) rendering the situation so simple that equilibria are transparent. The problems remained essentially unaddressed when economists extended Mundell (1961 ) via expected utility theory since this theory also ignores the impossibility of maximising and the complexities of central bankers, private firms and others in doing the evaluation stage in reaching decisions. The problems can be overcome by modelling within SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. This paper points to experimental evidence in support of the view that under all sorts of disequilibrating shocks, currency unions outperform flexible currencies by eliminating the inefficiencies generated by exchange rate uncertainty. Copyright 2008 The Author. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 32 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (02)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0378-5920|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002.
"ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
140, Royal Economic Society.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
- David Cobham, 2002. "The Exchange Rate as a Source of Disturbances: The UK 1979-2000," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 181(1), pages 96-112, July.
- Hahn, F., 1992. "A Remark on Incomplete Market Equilibrium," Papers 179, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007.
"Exchange Rate Regimes And Trade,"
University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 44-63, 09.
- Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007. "Exchange rate regimes and trade," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade," CERT Discussion Papers 0505, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
- Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
- M. S. Feldstein, 1969. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 5-12.
- McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September.
- T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
- Peter Klibanoff & Emre Ozdenoren, 2007. "Subjective recursive expected utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(1), pages 49-87, January.
- David Cobham, 2006. "The Overvaluation of Sterling Since 1996: How the Policy makers Responded and Why," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F185-F207, 06.
- Tatom John A, 2007. "The US-China Currency Dispute: Is a Rise in the Yuan Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, October.
- K. Borch, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Indifference Curves," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-4.
- Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
- Davidson, Paul, 2000. "Is a Plumber or a New Financial Architect Needed to End Global International Liquidity Problems?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1117-1131, June.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, 03.
- Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Financial fragility and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 543-561, December.
- Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen von Hagen, 2006. "Experimental Evidence on the Benefits of Eliminating Exchange Rate Uncertainties and Why Expected Utility Theory causes Economists to Miss Them," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 010, University of Siena.
- Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008.
"Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Johannes Kaiser & JÃ¼rgen von Hagen, 2007.
"Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict,"
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers
bgse19_2007, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Johannes Kaiser & JÃ¼rgen von Hagen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse18_2007, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Allais, Maurice, 1972. "Forgetfulness and Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 40-73, Part I Fe.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:32:y:2009:i:2:p:326-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.