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The Overvaluation of Sterling Since 1996: How the Policy makers Responded and Why

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  • David Cobham

Abstract

A large and sustained nominal appreciation in 1996-8 led to a serious and continuing overvaluation of sterling which has been associated with severe pressure on the manufacturing sector. The policy makers had difficulty in understanding past and forecasting future movements of sterling. They considered, but rejected, suggestions for foreign exchange market intervention and suggestions that interest rates should be set differently to reduce the overvaluation and relieve pressure on the tradable goods sector. One reason was that the exchange rate might react to such decisions in an erratic way. But if that is so the monetary framework needs to be revisited. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.

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  • David Cobham, 2006. "The Overvaluation of Sterling Since 1996: How the Policy makers Responded and Why," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 185-207, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:116:y:2006:i:512:p:f185-f207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Cobham, 2002. "The Exchange Rate as a Source of Disturbances: The UK 1979-2000," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 181(1), pages 96-112, July.
    2. Anderton, Bob, 1999. "UK Trade Performance and the Role of Product Quality, Innovation and Hysteresis: Some Preliminary Results," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(5), pages 570-595, November.
    3. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    4. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    5. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "U.K. inflation targeting and the exchange rate," Working Papers 2006-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    2. repec:rim:rimwps:37-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Johannes Kaiser & Jürgen von Hagen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse19_2007, University of Bonn, Germany.
    4. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2010. "Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 415-439 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:taf:intecj:v:31:y:2017:i:2:p:245-296 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen von Hagen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse26_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.
    7. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government: the first 13 years of the MPC," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 47-70, SPRING.
    8. Ram Sharan Kharel & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "The Complex Response Of Monetary Policy To The Exchange Rate," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 103-117, February.
    9. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government 1997-2010: the first 13 years of the MPC," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1302, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
    10. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961 ) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.

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