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Forecasting Changes in UK Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Thanaset Chevapatrakul

    (Department of Economics, Loughborough University)

  • Tae-Hwan Kim

    (Deparment of Economics, University of Nottingham)

  • Paul Mizen

    (Department of Economics, University of Nottingham)

Abstract

Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of comittee decisions based on new information since the previous meeting. We characterize this process as a dynamic ordered probit process that uses information to decide between three possible outcomes for interest rates: an increase, decrease or no-change. When we analyze the predictive ability of two information sets, we find that the approach has predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample that helps forecast the direction of future rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2007. "Forecasting Changes in UK Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 2007_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_26
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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/ec/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/ThanasetJOF.pdf
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    2. Kamil Kladívko & Pär Österholm, 2024. "An Analysis of UK Households’ Directional Forecasts of Interest Rates," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(3), pages 423-442, November.
    3. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    4. Baranowski, Paweł, . "Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2008(7-8).
    5. Serafeim Tsoukas & Marina-Eliza Spaliara, 2014. "Market Implied Ratings and Financing Constraints: Evidence from US Firms," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1-2), pages 242-269, January.
    6. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    7. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
    8. Gustavo Nicol√°s P√°ez, 2015. "Prediciendo decisiones de agentes econ√≥micos: ¬øC√≥mo determina el Banco de la Rep√∫blica de Colombia la tasa de inter√©s?," Documentos CEDE 12567, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2020. "Modelling Category Inflation with Multiple Inflation Processes: Estimation, Specification and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1342-1361, December.
    10. Lee A. Smales, 2013. "The Determinants of RBA Target Rate Decisions: A Choice Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 556-569, December.
    11. Sermpinis, Georgios & Tsoukas, Serafeim & Zhang, Ping, 2018. "Modelling market implied ratings using LASSO variable selection techniques," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-35.
    12. Christina Bräuning & Ralf Fendel, 2018. "National information and euro area monetary policy: a generalized ordered choice approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 501-522, March.
    13. Bergmeir, Christoph & Costantini, Mauro & Benítez, José M., 2014. "On the usefulness of cross-validation for directional forecast evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 132-143.
    14. Paweł Baranowski, 2008. "Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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