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Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

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  • Paul Mizen
  • Serafeim Tsoukas

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2011. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," Working Papers 2011_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2011_19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 171-191, December.
    2. Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao & Chunjie Li & Haoran Zhao & Bingkang Li, 2016. "Significant Factors Influencing Rural Residents’ Well-Being with Regard to Electricity Consumption: An Empirical Analysis in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(11), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Doumpos, Michael & Niklis, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2015. "Combining accounting data and a structural model for predicting credit ratings: Empirical evidence from European listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 599-607.
    4. Balios, Dimitris & Thomadakis, Stavros & Tsipouri, Lena, 2016. "Credit rating model development: An ordered analysis based on accounting data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 122-136.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings; probit; state dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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