IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v30y2014icp244-262.html

Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences

Author

Listed:
  • Bhattacharjee, Arnab
  • Han, Jie

Abstract

We study the impact of both microeconomic factors and the macroeconomy on the financial distress of Chinese listed companies over a period of massive economic transition, 1995 to 2006. Based on an economic model of financial distress under the institutional setting of state protection against exit, and using our own firm-level measure of distress, we find important impacts of firm characteristics, macroeconomic instability and institutional factors on the hazard rate of financial distress. The results are robust to unobserved heterogeneity at the firm level, as well as those shared by firms in similar macroeconomic founding conditions. Comparison with related studies for China and other economies highlights important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:244-262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.07.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X14000868
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2014.07.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Thompson, 2005. "Selection and Firm Survival: Evidence from the Shipbuilding Industry, 1825-1914," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 26-36, February.
    2. Bhattacharjee Arnab & Higson Christopher & Holly Sean & Kattuman Paul, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Corporate Failure: The Role of the Legal System," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    4. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006. "Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    6. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    7. C. Goodhart & C. Xu, 1996. "The Rise of China as an Economic Power," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 155(1), pages 56-80, February.
    8. Jahangir Aziz & Xiangming Li, 2008. "China's Changing Trade Elasticities," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, May.
    9. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:539-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    11. Maria Brouwer, 2006. "Reorganization in US and European Bankruptcy law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 5-20, July.
    12. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    13. Young, Garry, 1995. "Company Liquidations, Interest Rates and Debt," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 57-69, Suppl..
    14. Ferri, Giovanni & Liu, Li-Gang & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-148, January.
    15. Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2008. "Partial Orders with Respect to Continuous Covariates and Tests for the Proportional Hazards Model," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 200807, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    16. Felipe, Jesus & Laviña, Editha & Fan, Emma Xiaoqin, 2008. "The Diverging Patterns of Profitability, Investment and Growth of China and India During 1980-2003," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 741-774, May.
    17. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three‐Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jean Bonnet & Nicolas Le Pape & Régis Renault, 2008. "Entrepreneurial motives and performance : Why might better educated entrepreneurs be less successful ?," Post-Print halshs-00337431, HAL.
    19. Goodhart, Charles & Xu, Chenggang, 1996. "The Rise Of China As An Economic Power," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294368, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Bai, Chong-En & Liu, Qiao & Lu, Joe & Song, Frank M. & Zhang, Junxi, 2004. "Corporate governance and market valuation in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 599-616, December.
    21. Kam, Amy & Citron, David & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 2008. "Distress and restructuring in China: Does ownership matter?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 567-579, December.
    22. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, September.
    23. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    24. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.
    25. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Xu, Chenggang, 1996. "The rise of China as an economic power," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3753, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    27. Sumit K. Majumdar & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2014. "Firms, Markets, and the State: Institutional Change and Manufacturing Sector Profitability Variances in India," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(2), pages 509-528, April.
    28. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    29. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Machin, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 1993. "Profit Margins and the Business Cycle: Evidence from UK Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 29-50, March.
    31. Zhang, Le-Yin, 2004. "The Roles of Corporatization and Stock Market Listing in Reforming China's State Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2031-2047, December.
    32. Xiaozu Wang & Lixin Colin Xu & Tian Zhu, 2004. "State‐owned enterprises going public The case of China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 467-487, September.
    33. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    34. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    35. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    36. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    37. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
    38. Robert F. Owen & David Ulph, 2002. "Sunk Costs, Market Access, Economic Integration, and Welfare," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 539-555, August.
    39. Yu-Lin Huang, 2009. "Prediction of contractor default probability using structural models of credit risk: an empirical investigation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 581-596.
    40. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    41. Goudie, A W & Meeks, G, 1991. "The Exchange Rate and Company Failure in a Macro-Micro Model of the UK Company Sector," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 444-457, May.
    42. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    43. Mr. Jahangir Aziz, 2008. "Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India," IMF Working Papers 2008/095, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    45. Qian, Yanmin & Tian, Yao & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2009. "Do Chinese publicly listed companies adjust their capital structure toward a target level?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 662-676, December.
    46. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1443-1493 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Zong-Jun Wang & Xiao-Lan Deng, 2006. "Corporate Governance and Financial Distress: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 5-27, October.
    48. Greenwald, Bruce C. & Kohn, Meir & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1990. "Financial market imperfections and productivity growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-345, June.
    49. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    50. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    51. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
    52. repec:sae:niesru:v:155:y::i:1:p:56-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    54. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Jukka Topi, 1999. "Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Influences on Entry and Exit of Firms," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(3), pages 283-301, November.
    55. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "The Q-Theory of Mergers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 198-204, May.
    56. Pessarossi, Pierre & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Choice of corporate debt in China: The role of state ownership," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-16.
    57. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    58. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
    59. Murphy, S. A. & Sen, P. K., 1991. "Time-dependent coefficients in a Cox-type regression model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 153-180, October.
    60. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    61. A. Bhattacharjee & C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 108-131, February.
    62. Qiang, Qu, 2003. "Corporate governance and state-owned shares in China listed companies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 771-783, October.
    63. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i:281:p:299-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    64. Xu, Xiaonian & Wang, Yan, 1999. "Ownership structure and corporate governance in Chinese stock companies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 75-98.
    65. Xiao‐Ming Li, 2003. "China: Further Evidence on the Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 341-358, August.
    66. Geroski, P. A. & Gregg, P., 1996. "What makes firms vulnerable to recessionary pressures?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 551-557, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Errico, Lucia & Rondinella, Sandro & Trivieri, Francesco, 2023. "Enduring lending relationships and european firms default," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 459-477.
    2. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
    3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. A. Bhattacharjee & C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 108-131, February.
    5. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    6. Mariarosaria Agostino & Lucia Errico & Sandro Rondinella & Francesco Trivieri, 2024. "Leverage and SMEs financial stability: the role of banking competition," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 345-376, June.
    7. Ugur, Mehmet & Solomon, Edna & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2022. "Leverage, competition and financial distress hazard: Implications for capital structure in the presence of agency costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    9. M. A. Lagesh & Maram Srikanth & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1261-1274, October.
    10. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
    11. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    12. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    13. Khoja, Layla & Chipulu, Maxwell & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2019. "Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    15. Zhao, Weijia & Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Wu, Ji (George) & He, Feng, 2022. "Couple-based leadership and default risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 439-463.
    16. Almaskati, Nawaf & Bird, Ron & Yeung, Danny & Lu, Yue, 2021. "A horse race of models and estimation methods for predicting bankruptcy," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    19. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:244-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.