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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate financial Fragility

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  • Catherine Bruneau

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Olivier de Bandt

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • W. Elamri

Abstract

Using a large sample of accounting data for non-financial companies in France, this paper studies the interactions between macroeconomic shocks and companies' financial fragility. We consider links in both directions, namely whether firms' bankruptcies are affected by macroeconomic variables, and whether bankruptcies determine the business cycle. We estimate forecasting equations for firms' bankruptcy using Shumway's (2001) approach and study the joint dynamics of bankruptcies and macroeconomic variables within an exogenous VAR type model estimated at the sector level. We find evidence of reciprocal links between the bankruptcy rate and the output gap and highlight significant "second round effects" of shocks to the output gap on bankruptcies. We show how taking into account the dynamic transmission of macroeconomic shocks matters in stress testing exercises.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruneau & Olivier de Bandt & W. Elamri, 2012. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate financial Fragility," Post-Print hal-00666757, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00666757
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2012.02.002
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    4. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    5. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper series 13_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Elena Gregova & Katarina Valaskova & Peter Adamko & Milos Tumpach & Jaroslav Jaros, 2020. "Predicting Financial Distress of Slovak Enterprises: Comparison of Selected Traditional and Learning Algorithms Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
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    8. Katarzyna Boratynska, 2016. "Corporate Bankruptcy And Survival On The Market: Lessons From Evolutionary Economics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 107-129, March.
    9. Nijskens, Rob & Mokas, Dimitris, 2019. "Credit Risk in Commercial Real Estate Bank Loans : The Role of Idiosyncratic versus Macro-Economic Factors," Other publications TiSEM ea4f2f0e-dc50-4987-91d3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Catalán, Mario & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2022. "When banks punch back: Macrofinancial feedback loops in stress tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Ferrari, Stijn & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2021. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Patrick Van Roy & Stijn Ferrari & Cristina Vespro, 2018. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Working Paper Research 338, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. O. de Bandt & N. Dumontaux & V. Martin & D. Médée, 2013. "Stress-testing banks’ corporate credit portfolio," Débats économiques et financiers 1, Banque de France.
    14. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    15. Michael H. Morris & Sohrab Soleimanof & Reginald Tucker, 2023. "Drivers of fragility in the ventures of poverty entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 305-323, June.
    16. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Abudy, Menachem Meni & Raviv, Alon, 2016. "How much can illiquidity affect corporate debt yield spread?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 58-69.
    18. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    19. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
    20. Fang, Yiwei & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2014. "Geographic diversification in banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 172-181.
    21. Tomasz Pisula, 2020. "An Ensemble Classifier-Based Scoring Model for Predicting Bankruptcy of Polish Companies in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, February.
    22. Fernández-Gámez, Manuel Ángel & Soria, Juan Antonio Campos & Santos, José António C. & Alaminos, David, 2020. "European country heterogeneity in financial distress prediction: An empirical analysis with macroeconomic and regulatory factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 398-407.
    23. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.
    24. Dagmar Camska & Jiri Klecka, 2020. "Comparison of Prediction Models Applied in Economic Recession and Expansion," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial fragility; Macroeconomic shocks; Corporate bankruptcies; Multi-period Logit model; Stress testing; Second round effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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