IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v50y2003i3p341-358.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China: Further Evidence on the Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao‐Ming Li

Abstract

We revisit the weak‐form efficiency of China's stock markets by examining its changing behaviour over the entire history of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The Kalman Filter technique is applied to the system consisting of a time‐varying AR model and an asymmetric TGARCH equation. The estimates of predictability combined with other non‐quantifiable, evolutionary characteristics of the markets are used to infer on their efficiency. It is shown that, at their initial development stages, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were inefficient. However, the past decade saw a steady convergence of the two markets towards efficiency. An abnormal leverage effect is detected for Shanghai, but no strong evidence is found that there exists the information transmission between the two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao‐Ming Li, 2003. "China: Further Evidence on the Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 341-358, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:341-358
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.5003006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.5003006
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
    3. Zalewska-Mitura, Anna & Hall, Stephen G., 1999. "Examining the first stages of market performance: a test for evolving market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-12, July.
    4. D. Michael Long & Janet D. Payne & Chenyang Feng, 1999. "Information Transmission In The Shanghai Equity Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 29-45, March.
    5. Rebecca Emerson & Stephen Hall & Anna Zalewska-Mitura, 1997. "Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 75-90, May.
    6. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
    7. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 523-554, June.
    8. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Martin Laurence & Francis Cai & Sun Qian, 1997. "Weak-form Efficiency and Causality Tests in Chinese Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 291-307, December.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    12. Haiyan Song & Xiaming Liu & Peter Romilly, 1998. "Stock Returns and Volatility: an empirical study of Chinese stock markets," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 129-139.
    13. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60, June.
    14. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    15. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 523-554, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Rahman & M. Hassan, 2013. "Firm fundamentals and stock prices in emerging Asian stock markets: some panel data evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 463-487, October.
    2. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2005. "Bank credit and seasonal anomalies in China's stock markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 465-483.
    3. Emma Yan Peng & John Shon & Christine Tan, 2011. "XBRL and Accruals: Empirical Evidence from China," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 109-138, June.
    4. Xiao-Ming Li, 2003. "Time-varying Informational Efficiency in China's A-Share and B-Share Markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 33-56.
    5. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D., 2009. "Price limits and stock market efficiency: Evidence from rolling bicorrelation test statistic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1271-1276.
    6. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.
    7. Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2009. "Deregulation and liberalization of the Chinese stock market and the improvement of market efficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 843-857, August.
    8. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    9. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zou, Li-Ping, 2008. "How do policy and information shocks impact co-movements of China's T-bond and stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 347-359, March.
    10. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    11. Fifield, Suzanne G.M. & Jetty, Juliana, 2008. "Further evidence on the efficiency of the Chinese stock markets: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-361, September.
    12. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    13. Vít Pošta, 2008. "Estimating the Dynamics of Weak Efficiency on the Prague Stock Exchange Using the Kalman Filter," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 248-260, August.
    14. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    15. Hassan, Enas A., 2018. "The role of stock exchange efficiency in earnings quality: Evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 285-296.
    16. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Hany, Jie, 2010. "Financial Distress in Chinese Industry: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic and Institutional Infuences," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:341-358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.