IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00771080.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

Author

Listed:
  • Amélie Charles

    () (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Olivier Darné

    () (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for both A and B shares, using daily data over the period 1992-2007. The hypothesis is tested with new multiple variance ratio tests - Whang-Kim subsampling and Kim's wild bootstrap tests - as well as the conventional multiple Chow-Denning test. We find that Class B shares for Chinese stock exchanges do not follow the random walk hypothesis, and therefore are significantly inefficient. The Class A shares seem more efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Post-Print hal-00771080, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00771080
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2008.09.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771080/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Los, Cornelis A. & Yu, Bing, 2008. "Persistence characteristics of the Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 64-82.
    2. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    3. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    4. Xu, Cheng Kenneth, 2000. "The microstructure of the Chinese stock market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 79-97.
    5. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    6. D. Michael Long & Janet D. Payne & Chenyang Feng, 1999. "Information Transmission In The Shanghai Equity Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 29-45, March.
    7. Qiao, Zhuo & Li, Yuming & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-289, July.
    8. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    10. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    11. Wang, Ping & Liu, Aying & Wang, Peijie, 2004. "Return and risk interactions in Chinese stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 367-383, October.
    12. Politis, D. N. & Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 1997. "Subsampling for heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 281-317, December.
    13. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    14. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Tang, Sam Hak Kan & Wu, Yanrui, 2003. "The efficiency of the Chinese stock market and the role of the banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 593-609, August.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance-Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    17. Cheng F. Lee & Gong-meng Chen & Oliver M. Rui, 2001. "Stock Returns And Volatility On China'S Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 523-543, December.
    18. Chakravarty, Sugato & Sarkar, Asani & Wu, Lifan, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 325-356, December.
    19. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
    20. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Kim, Jinho, 2003. "A multiple variance ratio test using subsampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 225-230, May.
    21. Chen, G M & Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver, 2001. "Foreign Ownership Restrictions and Market Segmentation in China's Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 133-155, Spring.
    22. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    23. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
    24. Fifield, Suzanne G.M. & Jetty, Juliana, 2008. "Further evidence on the efficiency of the Chinese stock markets: A note," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-361, September.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    26. Chan, Kam C. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Thapa, Samanta, 2007. "China financial research: A review and synthesis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 416-428.
    27. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60, June.
    28. Deo, Rohit S. & Richardson, Matthew, 2003. "On The Asymptotic Power Of The Variance Ratio Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 231-239, April.
    29. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    30. H. R. Seddighi & W. Nian, 2004. "The Chinese stock exchange market: operations and efficiency," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 785-797.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beltratti, Andrea & Bortolotti, Bernardo & Caccavaio, Marianna, 2016. "Stock market efficiency in China: Evidence from the split-share reform," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 125-137.
    2. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    3. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2012. "Variance ratios, structural breaks and nonrandom walk behaviour in the Indian stock returns," MPRA Paper 48710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gabe de Bondt & Tuomas Peltonen & Daniel Santabarbara, 2011. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: estimates based on fundamentals," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 287-300.
    5. Chen, Jing & Buckland, Roger & Williams, Julian, 2011. "Regulatory changes, market integration and spillover effects in the Chinese A, B and Hong Kong equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 351-373, September.
    6. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muneer Shaik & S. Maheswaran, 2017. "Market Efficiency of ASEAN Stock Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 109-122, February.
    8. Elie Bouri & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the Wine Market using Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," Working Papers 201664, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta, 2011. "Are ASEAN stock market efficient? Evidence from univariate and multivariate variance ratio tests," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201113, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    10. Zhian Chen & Hai Jiang & Donghui Li & Ah Boon Sim, 2010. "Regulation Change and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from China's Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 140-157, November.
    11. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wang, Yizhong, 2013. "Asset price, risk transfer and economic activities: Firm-level evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 663-676.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2011. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    13. Tourani-Rad, Alireza & Gilbert, Aaron & Chen, Jun, 2016. "Are foreign IPOs really foreign? Price efficiency and information asymmetry of Chinese foreign IPOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 95-106.
    14. repec:ksp:journ5:v:5:y:2018:i:1:p:103-117 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00771080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.