IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Variance ratio tests of random walk: An overview

  • Amélie Charles

    ()

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia)

  • Olivier Darné

    ()

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)

This paper reviews the recent developments in the field of the variance-ratio (VR) tests of the random walk and martingale hypothesis. In particular, we present the conventional individual and multiple VR tests as well as their improved modifications based on power-transformed statistics, rank and sign tests, subsampling and bootstrap methods, among others. We also re-examine the weak-form efficiency for five emerging equity markets in Latin America.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771078/document
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00771078.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley, 2009, 23 (3), pp.503-527. <10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00570.x>
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00771078
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00570.x
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771078
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Willa W. Chen & Rohit S. Deo, 2004. "Power transformations to induce normality and their applications," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 117-130.
  2. Y. K. Tse & K. W. Ng & Xibin Zhang, 2004. "A small-sample overlapping variance-ratio test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 127-135, 01.
  3. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
  6. Daniel, Kent, 2001. "The power and size of mean reversion tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 493-535, December.
  7. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
  8. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  9. F. Cribari-Neto & S. G. Zarkos, 1999. "Bootstrap methods for heteroskedastic regression models: evidence on estimation and testing," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 211-228.
  10. Ojah, Kalu & Karemera, David, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 57-72, May.
  11. Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang, 1994. "Variance-Ratio Tests: Small-Sample Properties with an Application to International Output Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 177-86, April.
  13. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-18, June.
  14. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
  15. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
  16. Graham Smith & Keith Jefferis & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2002. "African stock markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 475-484.
  17. Grieb, Terrance & Reyes, Mario G, 1999. "Random Walk Tests for Latin American Equity Indexes and Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-83, Winter.
  18. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
  19. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  21. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  22. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Kim, Jinho, 2003. "A multiple variance ratio test using subsampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 225-230, May.
  23. Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu & Cole, John A, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 171-88, September.
  24. Davidson, James & Monticini, Andrea & Peel, David, 2007. "Implementing the wild bootstrap using a two-point distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 309-315, September.
  25. Perron, Pierre & Vodounou, Cosme, 2005. "The Variance Ratio Test: An Analysis Of Size And Power Based On A Continuous-Time Asymptotic Framework," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 562-592, June.
  26. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
  27. Osamah M. Al-Khazali & David K. Ding & Chong Soo Pyun, 2007. "A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 303-317, 05.
  28. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Efficiency in emerging markets--Evidence from the MENA region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 94-105, February.
  29. Luger, Richard, 2001. "Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Staff Working Papers 01-2, Bank of Canada.
  30. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
  31. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2003. "Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 383-95, July.
  32. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
  33. Faust, Jon, 1992. "When Are Variance Ratio Tests for Serial Dependence Optimal?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1215-26, September.
  34. Willa Chen & Rohit Deo, 2005. "The Variance Ratio Statistic at large Horizons," Econometrics 0501003, EconWPA.
  35. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
  36. Shively, Philip A., 2002. "An exact invariant variance ratio test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 347-353, May.
  37. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
  38. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
  39. Deo, Rohit S. & Richardson, Matthew, 2003. "On The Asymptotic Power Of The Variance Ratio Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 231-239, April.
  40. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
  41. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  42. Fong, Wai Mun & Koh, Seng Kee & Ouliaris, Sam, 1997. "Joint Variance-Ratio Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 51-59, January.
  43. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  44. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
  45. Psaradakis Zacharias, 2000. "p-Value Adjustments for Multiple Tests for Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-8, October.
  46. Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
  47. Politis, D. N. & Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 1997. "Subsampling for heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 281-317, December.
  48. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, 09.
  49. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2006. "Bootstrap tests of multiple inequality restrictions on variance ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 343-348, June.
  50. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
  51. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00771078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.