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The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

  • Amélie Charles

    ()

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia)

  • Olivier Darne

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00771081.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2009, 37, 11, 4267-4272
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00771081
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771081
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  19. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
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  23. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
  24. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
  25. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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