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Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency

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  • Montagnoli, Alberto
  • de Vries, Frans P.

Abstract

This note tests for the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the market for CO2 emission allowances in Phase I and Phase II of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). As usually is the case in emerging and non-competitive markets such as the EU ETS, trading often not occurs on a frequent basis. This has adverse implications for both the gains from permit trade as well as biases the EMH tests. Variance ratio tests are employed to adjust for the thin trading effect. The results indicate that Phase I--the trial and learning period--was inefficient, whereas the first period under Phase II shows signs of restoring market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Montagnoli, Alberto & de Vries, Frans P., 2010. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1331-1336, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:6:p:1331-1336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    2. Zhao, Xin-gang & Jiang, Gui-wu & Nie, Dan & Chen, Hao, 2016. "How to improve the market efficiency of carbon trading: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1229-1245.
    3. repec:spr:envpol:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10018-016-0171-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bangzhu Zhu, 2012. "A Novel Multiscale Ensemble Carbon Price Prediction Model Integrating Empirical Mode Decomposition, Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Sabbaghi, Omid & Sabbaghi, Navid, 2011. "Carbon Financial Instruments, thin trading, and volatility: Evidence from the Chicago Climate Exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 399-407.
    7. Seok Young Hong & Oliver Linton & Hui Jun Zhang, 2014. "Multivariate Variance Ratio Statistics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1459, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.
    9. Lucia, Julio J. & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Pardo, Ángel, 2015. "Speculative and hedging activities in the European carbon market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 342-351.
    10. Semenov, Andrei, 2015. "The small-cap effect in the predictability of individual stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 178-197.
    11. Seok Young Hong & Oliver Linton & Hui Jun Zhang, 2015. "An investigation into Multivariate Variance Ratio Statistics and their application to Stock Market Predictability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1552, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    13. Aatola, Piia & Ollikka, Kimmo & Ollikainen, Markku, 2012. "Informational Efficiency of the EU ETS market – a study of price predictability and profitable trading," Working Papers 28, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Matthew Ranson & Robert N. Stavins, 2012. "Post-Durban Climate Policy Architecture Based on Linkage of Cap-and-Trade Systems," NBER Working Papers 18140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:119-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    17. Daskalakis, George, 2013. "On the efficiency of the European carbon market: New evidence from Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 369-375.
    18. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI, November.
    19. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the Carbon Financial Instrument," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 209-234, April.
    20. Peter S. Schmidt & Therese Werner, 2012. "Channeling the final Say in Politics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/165, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    21. repec:eee:rensus:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Holland, Daniel S. & Thunberg, Eric & Agar, Juan & Crosson, Scott & Demarest, Chad & Kasperski, Stephen & Perruso, Larry & Steiner, Erin & Stephen, Jessica & Strelcheck, Andy & Travis, Mike, 2015. "US catch share markets: a review of data availability and impediments to transparent markets," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 103-110.
    23. Viteva, Svetlana & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. & Campbell, Kevin, 2014. "The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 475-484.
    24. Balietti, Anca Claudia, 2016. "Trader types and volatility of emission allowance prices. Evidence from EU ETS Phase I," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 607-620.
    25. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.

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